I've gotten several emails challenging the idea that Coach is the favorite with a 30% chance of winning. If anything, I think 30% is an understatement. Here is my reasoning.
First, there is no doubt that Coach's first two times playing Survivor were disasters. In Tocantins, Coach did things that were delusional and the public detested him because of it. At that season's reunion show, Jeff expressed puzzlement at why Coach was so disliked by the viewers - but the answer is easy. Survivor is a game. And, we all have experienced at least once in our lives playing a game that someone else isn't taking seriously or playing to win. It is VERY frustrating. Have you ever played Monopoly when you were 10, and one of the players sells Boardwalk for $1 to his buddy because of a chivalric code? Or, he refuses to collect rent because it's not honorable. Or, does things against his interest in an irrational manner because he's a dragonslayer? What do you do? You flip the board over and stop playing - right? You can't play a game unless everyone takes it at least a little bit seriously and tries to compete.
Coach in Tocantins was quixotic to the point where it was almost undermining the integrity of the game. Frankly, when this has happened in the past, Jeff has become infuriated (he hated Johnny Fairplay because Fairplay would do things suggesting a lack of seriousness - like showing up to tribal council drunk). But, Jeff indulged Coach's mania early because it tended to help people Jeff liked (JT) and I guess Jeff has always had a soft spot for Cervantes.
Coach was also hated by the audience because he was vain, had a superego, and told a lot of whopping tales. The mixture was toxic. His animosity toward Sierra was something I never understood, and I still can't believe how that poor, sweet girl sat through so many of Coach's endless lectures. My favorite part of that season was the challenge where everyone's loved one shows up and competes. So, there they all were: parents, siblings, friends, etc. Do you know who showed up for Coach? His assistant coach!!!! His employee!!!! The only guy Coach could get to come was someone whose job depends on Coach!!!! I still think it's hysterical.
Coach got better in Heroes v. Villains, but he still had major problems - including an epic breakdown after one tribal council where he was crying like a schoolgirl the day Elvis died. Tyson had to console him and tell him things like (paraphrasing): "do your Tai Chi in private and stop wearing feathers to tribal council. That's why they mock you." Jeff was finally starting to become dissatisfied with Coach's windmill duels, and multiple times scolded the tribe for voting Boston Rob out (something Coach played a big part in). For Jeff, Coach's eccentric gameplay is great TV when it saves the likes of JT, but becomes a liability when the casualty is Boston Rob, one of the few Survivors to breakthrough to the wider popular culture. That's when Don Quixote's romanticism become a little irksome.
Anyway, this season has seen a vast improvement. There are hints of his madness, but it is MUCH better. He might be getting a good cut from the producers, but there have only been a few complaints about him - and it's mostly been sour grapes from the uber-curmudgeons Christine & Stacey (though, the sensible Sophie has landed some blows while rightly questioning Coach's false prayer meetings).
I get the fact that the only guys on this quest who might actually like Coach is the village idiot and court jester (Brandon & Cochran), but, the rest are still aligned with him. The bottom line is this: despite his past, I think Coach can win a jury vote.
How do you stop him from getting to the finals when he has the idol? You can try to blindside him, but it's dangerous. And, once you get down to seven, I don't think you'll have enough votes. More importantly, they are already down to 9, and no one is even talking about going against Coach. Albert's worried about Edna!?!?
Coach can't play the idol once you get down to four - that's your best shot to take him out. But, Coach could win that immunity! There's only four of you! What if Brandon is still around, and he wins immunity? Will he vote against Coach? Never. Coach might have massive protection at four. Do you force a tie? At four, they don't draw rocks, but build a fire. Coach might win that.
It gets a little easier if Brandon's not around at four, but he's going to be hard to get rid of before then. But, you need to win immunity yourself, or hope Ozzy comes back from Redemption and goes on an immunity run. Which means Ozzy is in the finals - and you lose to him, because the jury is stacked with his former tribe.
So, I'll ask again - how do you keep Coach out of the finals? Can you beat Coach in the finals? It's going to be hard. He's played a clean game and has lead the tribe pretty well. I'm sure he's done flaky stuff we're not seeing, but no one is complaining about it. He's going to be hard to beat. And, he can handpick the two people sitting next to him. Coach might be unstoppable (but, he can always do something crazy and blow it).
I can write more - specifically, about how Coach got into this enviable position - but, I'll save it for another episode.
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