Monday, December 5, 2011

Survivor: South Pacific, Ep. 10


It's not too surprising that the alliance held. I want to thank the producers for getting it done so quickly (four votes in two nicely paced episodes). Now, with just the seven-person alliance left, the fireworks can begin. 
 
Whitney mocked the majority for not seeing that they can't ALL go to the finals. So, why didn't the ones on the low end of the totem pole align with her & Dawn and usurp the existing regime? As I said last week, nine is a good time to do it (at 7, it might be too late). Are they all as dumb as Whitney claims? 
 
This is the second season in a row where they brought back two previous competitors. I believed they were going to be at a huge disadvantage because Christine's attitude ("they are temporary players") would prevail. However, it's only those with a bad reputation (Russell, last season) who have fallen victim to that thinking. It turns out that having a decent-to-good reputation has been a MAJOR asset. The newbies are out there with (a) strangers they know NOTHING about and (b) a dude who played before and was fairly honest. Who would you gravitate to?
 
Boston Rob is a snake, but he kept true to his primary alliance - even marrying her - in the series' crown jewel (Survivor: All-Stars). So, everyone he aligned with last year thought they were the one he would stay true to (even though he could only bring TWO to the finals). I thought betraying his other allies would doom Rob, but he got to hand pick the two he would face. This, and getting votes from the opposing tribe, gave him a huge advantage.  
 
As my analysis from last week detailed, Coach has a reputation for being a world-class flake, but not a dishonest one. His first two disastrous stints on the show did not involve betrayal - rather, Coach was often honest to a fault. So, this season, Coach is trustworthy in a way the other "strangers" aren't. He can make promises to everyone to go to the end (implicit and explicit) because he has a decent reputation. If you were out there - who are you going to trust Whitney or Coach? You've seen Coach play before. You don't know squat about Whitney. Furthermore, Cochran just blew up his own alliance - underscoring how you can't trust the new players to the same degree you can a returning player.
 
Anyhow, that's my theory as to why Rob won last season, and Coach has done so well this year. So, Coach's allies are not as dumb as Whitney claims.
 
I understand that you might argue: 'still, only two of them can go with Coach to the finals, so some of them - by definition - are making an error.' But, that's the case in ANY alliance. Only two can go to the finals with Whitney. So, some of them are playing under false expectations. I get it. But, wouldn't Whitney be forced to let some in her alliance down too? So, are the people hanging with Coach really that dumb? Furthermore, I've conceded that it's harder to make a move at 7, but it might be wiser to try and fail at 7, rather than succeeding at 9. You lose too many votes at 9 because you went against your own alliance. At 7, it's an intra-alliance move, and less egregious.   
 
Albert, if you're going to kiss up to the jury and not follow through, you should do so without raising Whitney and Dawn's expectations so much. I know you needed Sophie to go along, but they might interpret that you were pulling their leg, and resent it. However, at least you entertained their offer. Maybe it will help get their jury votes. And, at least you are thinking about the end-game. The last two seasons were marked by lots of players who had no conception of what would happen beyond the next vote. But, Albert doesn't seem to be cunning (or ruthless) enough. Frankly, he's broadcasting his moves. 
 
Sophie does seem tough enough to execute an effective end-game. I think the issue is will Coach realize he can't let Sophie reach the finals? In the preview he's talking about whether Brandon deserves to be here (but, Edna does?). That's exactly the sort of nonsense that blew up Coach in Tocantins. If he starts acting on thoughts like that - he could blow this game. He still has the idol and a clear path to the finals. Coach should fear Sophie. She can win the jury vote. Albert might also. They are his competition - not Brandon. Sophie did some major lifting for herself and her tribe this week. It will help her big time in front of a jury. It's hard to accuse her of coat-tail-riding when she won TWO key immunities when things were on the line. If I were on the beach, I would not want her in the finals. Coach needs to realize Sophie is his biggest threat.
 
If Coach is fearful that the Hantz in Brandon will come out - I can see targeting him. But, I think Coach fears that if he takes Brandon to the final three, the jury will resent Coach for taking an unworthy player - because that's how Coach thinks. Coach's end-game might be designed to impress a jury of nine Coach's! If that's the case, Coach's end-game could be disastrous (akin to Greg Norman at the 1995 Masters).
 
Somehow, my gut tells me everything might come down to Rick. That's how the Mikalaya vs. Edna vote went down, and I think those divisions are still there. But, that's assuming Coach acts rationally and doesn't make an ass of himself. There are signals he might.

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