Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 8

If you have not seen it, last week's episode was by far the best of this season.  I’m tempted to quote every line by Cochran (his commentary was that outstanding!), but I would be merely repeating his fine work.  I'll stick to some general observations.

After watching the episode, I am convinced of two things:

1. Corinne opens her presents Christmas Eve.
2. Malcolm opens his presents Christmas morning.

Both Corinne and Malcolm were on board with the same plan, but Corinne had to blab it to the wrong person way too early.  She was like Dr. Evil explaining to Austin Powers everything that had been plotted and then being shocked when the plan was thwarted.

Corinne, I realize your proud of your plan.  I realize you hate Phillip.  But, show some patience.  Don't run and tell everything to Dawn.  Tell Dawn 20 minutes before the next vote when there is nothing she can do about it.  Don't tell her your blindside move two votes in advance!  Malcolm was on board and he was able to keep his mouth shut, why couldn’t you!

The conclusion I must arrive to is this: among the remaining Favorites, Corinne was an inferior player compared to the likes of Cochran, Dawn, and even... Philip.  The Favorites beautifully came together and orchestrated a counter-action to destroy Corinne.  It was awesome. 

In summary:

Great challenge (I love the food eating challenges)
Great commentary from Cochran
Great last minute maneuvering and blindside.
Great episode!  Thank you Survivor!

Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 7

Last week's reward challenge (where they raced around an oval track in knee-deep water trying to catch the other tribe) is one of the more exciting challenges the show has come up with.  But, they completely wasted it here.  First, the challenege is incredibly grueling, so it really ought to be saved for an immunity challenege.  Second, because it's so physical, and the tribes are so mismatched, there was no chance of it ever being competitive (when they ran the challenge in Palau, it was one of the more epic competitions in the show's history).  Instead, in this incarnation, we were treated to one of the more pathetic efforts (I've watched games of Solitaire that were more exciting) and whiny scapegoating the show has ever offered (does anyone really think it was Phillip's faulty strategy that caused them to lose?).  Fischer at Reykjavik could not have drawn a gameplan that would have produced a W for Phillip's team.  Frankly, if I were on the tribe, I would have suggested forfeiting.  Why waste the energy on a hopeless endeavor?

 

Cochran is a lot easier to like this time out.  The first time he played Survivor he was in a complete panic that he would humiliate himself - and, of course, that is precisely what he wound up doing.  But, being invited back as a favorite seems to have calmed him down.  As a result, you get to hear his insights and observations (which are pretty entertaining).  The other thing calming him down is the fact that he's in a very powerful position.  Next week they merge (thankfully) and there might be 4 or 5 primary targets, but I don't think anyone will be gunning for Cochran soon.  Rather, I think the different factions will be looking to Cochran and Dawn for their votes.  They might be the ones making the decisions.

 

Speaking of the much-needed merge, now might be a good time to handicap the 12 remaining players' chances of winning.  [I’m going to mention the alpha/athletic-males quite a bit because there are a lot of them left for this stage of the game, and the last episode indicated they were aligning.  How that resolves itself will dictate much of the rest of the game.]

 

1.  Cochran: I think he's in a great position right now.  His one weak spot is that he betrayed his alliance the first time he played.  It could get people nervous about him later in the game.

 

2.  Malcolm:  Has the idol.  I am very skeptical about an athletic-male alliance, but we'll see.  An alpha-male alliance of four, where two have an idol, is formidable.  However, my gut tells me that even if it got going, when they got down to nine, the five people outside the inner four would unite to destroy it.  But, with an idol, Malcolm might survive that process.  So, in sum, if he sticks with his Favorite alliance, I think he's in great shape.  If he goes with the athletic-male alliance and it works, he still might be in great shape.  And, if the athletic-male alliance blows up, he might still be OK.  I think he’s going to go with the alpha-males because he didn’t last game, and it partially explains why he lost. 

 

3.  Dawn:  She is poised to go very deep unless an alpha-male alliance overturns everything and puts her in a minority (which kind of happened to her the first time she played when Cochran's treachery left her in a minority).

 

4.  Andrea:  Her athleticism and good looks might make her more of a target than Cochran/Dawn.  But, there's no doubt she can play and she's dangerous.  However, I think everyone sort of knows it.  She's not under the radar enough.  She could use an alpha-male war to distract everyone from her.

 

5.  Phillip.  He's crazy, but why can't he win?  Despite being slightly unhinged, he is reasonably honest and loyal.  I think he could stumble into the final three - and, he has a case to be made if he gets there.

 

6.  Brenda:  Under the radar.  She's gotten less attention or camera time than anyone left.  Her first time out, she was the center of everything, and it blew up in her face.  She has learned much since then.

 

7.  Reynold:  Has an idol and might have an alliance with Malcolm.  He's been the best in the challenges so far.  Until we know how the athletic-male alliance shakes out, he's hard to rank.  After the next episode. he could be in the top 3 or going home.

 

8.  Erik:  He's still pretty dumb.  He's in a good position, but I don't know if he'll be able to close it out. 

 

9.  Eddie:  Might be in the dominant alliance.  Might be going home next.   Who knows?

 

10.  Corinne:  I don't think she's liked enough to get her through the mid-rounds. 

 

11.  Mike:  Corinne's protection does not offer much cover.  It's like carrying a parasol in a monsoon. 

 

12.  Sherri:  Made too many early mistakes.  Who is her ally now?  Nobody, that's who.  Maybe she could latch on to an anti-alpha-male alliance.  Maybe she can survive on the sidelines during an alpha-male war.  But, even if she made the final 3, who would vote for her?  All the people who liked her are gone.

 

As noted before, after a strong start, the show went through a 3-4 week dry spell.  Hopefully, the merge shakes things up and provides some decent action.

Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 5 & 6

It's been a while since I posted something.  I think it's because: (a) I though the last few episodes have been below average, and (b) I don't have too much to say about them.

 

Brandon is a deeply disturbed person, but his histrionics seemed a tad staged to me.  I'm not saying he isn't a tortured individual.  I'm not saying he doesn't lack self-control.  But, the whole thing seemed a little forced.  Brandon didn't lose control.  Brandon decided to act like he had lost control.

 

Brandon's first time on Survivor was a mess.  He played a very confused game.  Was he playing to win?  For honor?  For Jesus?  Or, as Coach's pawn?  It was hard to tell.  When he got back home, he was criticized from all angles for blowing it.  When he came out the second time, I don't think he knew what he wanted to do.  He didn't have a game plan or father-figure to lean on.  He was outside the main alliance.  He felt vulnerable.  He crumbled.  He went looking for a reason to be the center of attention for an episode and get the heck out.  Frankly, it's a pathetic way to quit.  Brandon might be the author of his own fate but only a lunatic would write such a script.

 

After the Brandon meltdown, Corinne made a crucial observation.  She realized that no one defended or comforted her or Phillip after they had borne the brunt of Brandon's diatribes.  I'm not saying the tribe defended Brandon, I'm just saying Corinne and Phillip didn't get much personal sympathy and that should be a major red flag that they are not particularly liked.  We'll see if Corinne will use this realization to her advantage and sniff out a blind-side in the nick of time.  My hunch is she won't and will have a meltdown.  For those looking to eliminate Corinne, my advice is to do it before she gets on the jury.

 

I have a gripe with how they reshuffled the tribes.  I had no problem with making sure both tribes were going to be 4-3 majority-Favorites.  I think it would be unfair to shuffle and have some Favorites in a minority.  The Favorites had rightly earned to be in a dominant position.  My problem, though, was that the rest of the allocation was random and the next challenge was incredibly physical.  Whenever you have a random allocation, you risk creating significantly mismatched tribes (which happened here).  I think it's fairer to have a more strategic or knowledge-based challenge.  Instead, they ran one of the most physical challenges in the show's history, and next week's challenge looks just as tough.  I have no idea why they are doing it like this, but I don't like it.  I want competitive challenges not blowouts.

 

Next week's preview showed Malcolm possibly aligning with Reynold.  Alliances like that make sense early on (strong men do better when aligned to strong men), but I think it's too late for that now.  How does Malcolm expect to win a jury vote if he betrays the Favorites?  Has he been keeping track?  The whole jury is going to be made up of Favorites - they already outnumber the Fans 8-5!  Hopefully, the preview was misleading.

 

One last point - since I criticized the producers I should say they were right to give both tribes a bag of rice after Brandon dumped his.  Rule #1 of Survivor is that you can't hit another contestant, so how exactly are you supposed to restrain someone from dumping your food supply?  Giving both tribes a bag seemed like a fair solution.

 

Here's to tomorrow's episode being more fun than the last two!  (Then again, even a bad episode of Survivor is still better than almost anything else on TV!) 

 

Later.

Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 4

I'm going to squeeze in a short review of last week's debacle.

It's now clear that Sherri's plan to drag Shamar to the Final 3 was pure fantasy.  He was never going to make it.  I'm not denying he was legitimately hurt, but he's the first Survivor to hurt himself while laying in the tent.  I think this guy was going to get medically evacuated at some point no matter what.  I've seen abrasive people make it to the end, but it is very rare for people who won't get out of the tent to make it to the end.  I thought the love his alliance showed him last week would pick him up, instead he used the leverage to get Sherri to bring him his meals.  Atrocious.

Shamar single-handedly blew the reward by lying on the platform and telling people to stand on his back.  That is incredibly inefficient.  If they had won the reward, the protein from the chicken dinner might have pushed them over the top in the immunity challenge.  Instead, they lost both challenges and two people.  The decision to keep Shamar over Hope steamrolled into a disaster.

Seeing as Sherri engineered this debacle, it's fitting that she now appears to be on the bottom of her alliance, if not her tribe.  Her defense of Laura ("we haven't been winning any challenges anyway") was rightly rejected - even Julia wanted to side with the guys.  Sherri voted with them because she had no choice.

The Fans are down 9-6, have no idol and there's no sign of a re-mix of tribes.  They need the Favorites to implode, and luckily for them, Mount Brandon is close to erupting.

Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 3

I've been the commissioner of a fantasy baseball league since 1999.  There is one owner who has quit the league at least four times. 

It's the same formula: he has a heated argument (often with multiple owners), he loses, and then he quits.  I wait a while, and then I get an owner who wasn't really in the argument to e-mailhim and tell him everyone in the league wants him to come back.

It has always worked.  Four times he has quit, four times he has returned.  Every couple of years, he needs the league to show him a little love.  He's our Shamar.

After the Fans lost immunity, there was no talk of giving Shamar what he wanted and voting him out.  Shamar didn't ask for it either.  All that had been said the day before had been forgotten.  Once Shamar heard from the ladies in his alliance that they wanted him to stay, the quit-talk was over.  I say "the ladies", because I don't think Shamar cares what Matt or Mike thinks.  Matt had his run-in with Shamar on Day 1 and right before the last challenge Mike offered to slap hands with Shamar as a good luck gesture and got totally dissed.

Obviously, I think things aren't right with the alliance and Shamar has major problems in his immediate future.  He had a decent idea hinting to Hope to vote for Eddie, but the execution was awful.  It was too cryptic for Hope to figure out what he meant, and it got back to his alliance and caused a panic in Laura, who was already sick of him ("the part of Shamar that was fun is completely gone").  With Mike and Matt not having much of a relationship with Shamar, how long can Sherri protect her "Phillip"?  Boston Rob protected Phillip to the Final 3 because he reasonably controlled him.  I don't think Sherri can control Shamar.  Phillip would never go against a BR order and plant ideas in the head of the next person going home.  Phillip would never disrespect a member of the alliance.  Sherri might be forced by her alliance to let Shamar go or lose her alliance altogether.

Other Thoughts:

- Brandon has been handed a gift, and he can't see it.  Because he (deservedly) earned a reputation for loyalty in his first season, the main alliance might replace Corinne with him.  But, Brandon is suspicious of the messenger (Andrea) and the fact that they might be trying to placate him because he threatened to pee in the rice.  He has a reasonable suspicion on that last point, which is why you shouldn't go around threatening to pee in the rice.  His wild talk has created the situation that he finds himself in - one where the alliance's offers might be reasonably tainted.  Great gameplay, Brandon!  You've given everyone a reason to mislead you and a reason to distrust everything said to you!  Genius!

- Malcolm has been removed from the closer role (he did little of the tossing in the challenge) and found the idol.  He also has an alliance with an older woman who knows he has the idol.  It's identical to last season (except for the fact that his initial tribe is winning).  If there is going to be a war between Corinne and Andrea, and Corinne loses (which is probable), Malcolm can probably escape unscathed (I doubt he would give the idol to save Corinne).  I was very skeptical of his chances this time out, but he looks set to go deep into the game again.

-  I would like to know more about how close Laura was to bolting her alliance.

-  If Hope had understood Shamar's cryptic message and voted for Eddie, she'd still be in the game.

Good episode.  I'm liking this season.  I can't wait for the Andrea/Corinne collision and to see whether Brandon melts down and does something incredibly stupid.  Where's Coach when you need him?

Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 2

This episode's immunity challenge presented an example of another advantage the Favorites have over the Fans - personnel management. 

The Favorites have seen each other play before (except for Malcolm), and know everyone's strengths and weaknesses (which might explain why Malcolm is still closing - his tribemates haven't seen his season yet, so they are just learning that he can't close).  Anyhow, it didn't matter.  In addition to the inherent disadvantage of not yet knowing their tribemates' strengths and weaknesses, the Fans do not know how to communicate, Shamar threw a tantrum during the discussion regarding assignments, so they wound up with the wrong people on the wrong tasks.  They had three men pulling the raft (Shamar could have pulled the raft single-handedly), which was the least important leg of the challenge (something the Favorites knew, which is why they hid Cochrane there).  Instead, they should have included at least one of their top male athletes on the diving team (the Favorites wisely chose Erik).  Men have up to 50% more lung capacity than women and can hold their breath much longer, which is why men have dominated diving throughout the history of Survivor.  (Has any of these so-called Fans seen the show before?).  Of the three women they did send diving - only Sherri showed any effort.  I'm not sure the other two could swim.  It was a complete disaster.

As for the vote, the cool kids seemed overly nonchalant about the strength of their alliance outside of their core four.  They knew they were alienating themselves with their cliquish behavior, so you'd think they would try to work more angles then they did.  Eddie looked generally surprised by the vote - did he really think their strategy was a slam dunk because Shamar misbehaved in camp?  Why would someone agree to be the 5th or 6th wheel to an ultra-tight four-person alliance?

Allie might have spoken fewer words on air than anyone ever to play Survivor.  She had some spirited closing remarks after getting booted, but before that we hardly saw her say anything.  Reynold told her Matt's voting with them, and I guess she thought it was enough.  Passive.
 
Laura called the four-person alliance the "pretty people".  There was real contempt in her voice, as if they were making her feel like she was in the loser clique in high school.  Laura is attractive and bright, therefore, if the core four was making her feel that alienated, they must have been sending out horrible vibes.  Of course, Laura might also have a chip on her shoulder, but I'm guessing this was more of the alliance's fault seeing as Laura wasn't the only one complaining.

All tolled, outside of the core four, this tribe is not communicating well.  Shamar is not a leader and can't be lead.  They are making horrible assignments at challenges.  There is a distinct mistrust and anger within the tribe, and a lot of this can be attributed to the main alliance.  And, I'm not sure the problem can be fixed.

The bottom line is this: Survivor is a social game, and every member of that four-person alliance is guilty of atrocious game play.  They are also guilty of atrocious arithmetic.  When you have ten people in your tribe, you need SIX people in your alliance.  Four people and two afterthoughts do not equal six.  The afterthoughts (if they know they are afterthoughts, which this group made clear) will not be loyal.  A four-person alliance with two afterthoughts is still a four-person alliance.

Allie, we hardly knew you, but you deserved to go.  

Other thoughts:

-  Laura calling out Reynold's idol helps Reynold - no?  Isn't Reynold better off now that everyone knows he has it without announcing it himself, which could sound like bragging?

-  Brandon, calm down.  You're acting like a friggin' lunatic.  You're only 21.  You have your whole working life ahead of you, and you're making yourself unemployable.  Who the heck would ever hire you after the way you've been acting?  Shamar has been a loudmouth, but it's partly for show.  You're serious.  You're not acting.  That's what's scary about it.

-  Two people this episode (Brandon and Michael) made the argument that it was somehow cruel to vote Francesca out first.  I don't buy it for one second.  I'm not saying there aren't any ethics in Survivor, I just don't think they include giving Francesca a free pass the first vote.  No one owed her anything.  The people who suggest they did owe her something are asserting a false moral superiority.  I was not impressed by it.

This was a pretty good episode when you consider there was only one challenge.  I'm enjoying the season thus far.

Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 1

In the original Fans vs. Favorites, the returning players completely dominated.  There were three key elements: the returnees were a strong group; they had existing relationships; and the quality of the Fans was atrocious (so atrocious that this season marks the first time any of that group of ten Fans has returned, and Erik's claim to fame is pulling one of the dumbest moves in the history of the game).  So, the first Fans vs. Favorites turned into the Globetrotters vs. the Generals.

This incarnation feels more like Fans vs. Misfits.  There are a lot of low quality players returning.  When Probst was introducing them as they came off the chopper, I got the feeling the Fans didn't know who some of them were (I heard crickets when Corinne was introduced).  Therefore, having won the first immunity challenge, should we give the Fans more of a chance?

I'm reminded of a scene from the classic sitcom, Taxi.  Tony's brakes fail and he almost gets into an accident.  He storms into the garage furious with management over their cavalier regard to driver safety.  The other drivers vote Tony shop steward - he meets with Louie, and totally blows it (Louie manipulates him into doing nothing).  The drivers recall him as shop steward and open the floor to new nominees. 

Jim:  I nominate Tony!
Alex: Jim?!?!? Why would you nominate Tony?
Jim:  Alex, there is no substitute for experience!

And, that kind of sums up how I feel about the returning players.  Yes, some of them were terrible, but I've seen many people improve significantly in their second appearance.  Yes, they lost immunity, but they dominated both challenges (it's just that Malcolm couldn't close the immunity challenge - something he was prone to doing last season).  I still believe the Favorites/Misfits will be stronger long-term.

But, there are warning signs.  I thought Brandon could improve his second time out, but he looks shaky.  He's repeating his same antics from his first season, i.e., targeting strong women he is attracted to (Mikayla last time, Andrea last week).  He has no father figure to lead him this time the way Coach did last (unless you count Phillip, who needed his own shepard in Boston Rob when he played).  Brandon is talking about pulling a "Hantz" and seeding chaos.  I'm not sure what that gets him.  Why doesn't he emulate his uncle and find a hidden immunity?  Just a thought.

Francesca deserved to go.  If you're aim is to get revenge in your first vote, it will blow up in your face (see the Chinese proverb: before seeking revenge, dig two graves).  There was no subtlety to what she was doing.  They came back from the challenge and she immediately told 5 people to vote Philip.  Awkward.

I'd still bet on the Favorites in the long-term, but it was a bad start for them:

Other thoughts:

-  Was it in Philip's contract that he can only return if he wears the pink/purple undies?  The producers must have insisted on that?

-  Why is Chochran sunburned?  I'm pretty sure they get lotion.

-  Erik, I'm sorry Phillip intimidated you about having the numbers.  Get over it.  It's part of the game.  He made you an offer you couldn't refuse, and you refused it.  Fine.  You're allowed to.  Stop whining about it ("he didn't eve give me a choice...").  Did you want his offer to include an option where you could vote him out?  Exactly what choices did you want Phillip to offer? 

-  I think Cochran might be a lot stronger this time around.  He's still doing the Woody Allen schtick, but he doesn't seem as scared as he was before.

-  When I close my eyes while Eddie is speaking, I hear the voice of Dan Ennis' old roommate, Jeff (if you don't know who Jeff is, kindly disregard).

-  Shamar is a showboat.  He manipulated that whole water/shelter thing to look like the hero.  It won't work.  I don't have confidence in him to go deep.

-  The 4-person alliance of the cool kids among the Fans is likely doomed.  That strategy has rarely worked.  These people want to play some deserted island dating game - have it on TV - and then go home and enjoy the 15 minutes.  This is one of the reasons I'm skeptical about the Fans - between those 4 and Shamar, they have a lot of questionable players.

Overall it was a good episode.  They jumped right into a challenge and it never dragged from there.  Malcolm's failures in clutch spots is something to watch.  We'll see what happens in week 2.