tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43788465841612608502024-03-13T12:56:59.741-04:00John EnnisJohn Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.comBlogger154125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-84064847629222386512013-06-17T06:37:00.001-04:002013-06-17T06:37:39.147-04:00Wishing for the PlaguesI always find it interesting when a climate change alarmist says what she really thinks. <br />
<br />
Zoe Williams is worried that we are not doing enough to combat climate change. She concludes a column in the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/14/weird-weather-feeble-politicians-climate-change" target="_blank">Guardian</a> with this tid-bit (emphasis added):<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
How do we imbue the political cycle with some long-term thinking, some altruism, some care for future generations?<br />
<br />
<i><b>What
this situation needs is actual bad weather, actual negative events</b></i>,
that we can all see, that we can agree on the significance of, to spur
us into action. In the meantime the answers are sitting there, waiting
to happen.</blockquote>
So, if a tornado blows off you roof this weekend, there is someone out there who thinks it's a good thing. Presumably, the higher the death toll, the better. <br />
<br />
<br />John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-45812829516586695902013-05-12T12:14:00.001-04:002013-05-12T12:14:16.699-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Eps. 12 & 13<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">I've heard from several of you saying that you felt sorry for Brenda after her ouster on Wednesday. You never want to see someone go out crying, but, Brenda's downfall was her own fault.<br />
<br />
1. There is never any reason to win the challenge involving the loved ones. They make you pick who else gets the reward - a process that has NEVER made a friend, only enemies. <br />
</span></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">
</span><span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"> <br />
2. There is little reason to give the reward to the four others. It never buys good will. I've
never seen anyone vote for a Survivor at final tribal because they gave
them a reward. If anything, the others will use your boot-licking as an excuse to vote you out (another reason not to win the challenge in the first place). If you're liked, you'll be liked whether you gave out rewards or not (though not giving a reward will create enemies - see point 1).<br />
<br />
3. Did Brenda really quit the immunity challenge or was it a "Phillip" quit, i.e., after losing the challenge you decide you threw it? It wasn't like this in the early seasons. When
did this concept develop of "you already won an immunity, let me have
this one"? How does anyone find that argument persuasive? Whether it
was a Phillip quit or not, I can't believe Brenda actually suggested
that she gave up on that challenge. Brenda - you got it backwards. You
should have thrown the reward and won immunity.<br />
<br />
4. Brenda completely misunderstood Dawn's relationship with Cochran. I understand Brenda was laid back in the early going and didn't form alliances right away. But, she should have understood that a neurotic like Dawn would have major alliances on day one (which she did). I don't know what sort of retainer agreement Brenda thought she had with Dawn, but she clearly underestimated Dawn's pledge to Cochran.
I understand that by the end Dawn and Brenda were relying on each other
for emotional support. But, Brenda might have picked up on the fact
that Dawn has been such a wreck in part because she was torn between Brenda and Cochran. <br />
<br />
As I said, you hate to see a sweet person like Brenda leave the game crying, but Dawn's betrayal was not that egregious. It wouldn't make Kim Spradlin's top 10.
However, I do dislike Dawn a little more because of it. The Andrea
blindside didn't bother me as much because Andrea's demands were
becoming ridiculous (suggesting to Cochran that Eddie be in the final 3) and she had a hidden idol. She needed to go more than Brenda. But, Brenda was becoming dangerous, and Dawn can defend the move.<br />
<br />
As for tonight, the preview suggested a player leaves the game under unusual circumstances (injury or quits). Is is possible
Dawn's guilt overwhelms her? On the other hand, why did they spend 5
minutes last week showing Erik climb half-way up a tree? It served no purpose whatsoever, yet they had to have shown it for a reason? It got me thinking that something might happen to Erik later on.<br />
<br />
I've enjoyed this season, but I've become concerned that it could end poorly tonight. Let's face it, not having the likes of Malcolm, Reynold, Andrea or Brenda in the finals does diminish the excitement a bit. I understand that the best players are going to often be targeted, but I see an awful lot of bottom</span>-feeders left in this game. Eddie, Sherri and Erik do not make an All-Star team, and Dawn has been too emotionally inconsistent for me to take seriously the idea that she played a strong game. At this point, I feel only Cochran deserves to win. So, I'm worried I might not enjoy tonight if he doesn't. However, if someone pulls together a strong final episode (Eddie?), my opinion might change.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Going Into the Final Episode:</b></u><br />
<br />
1. Cochran (30% chance of
winning). I think Eddie might have a lot of votes on that jury, so the
group has to get rid of him before worrying about Cochran. This, in my
mind, makes Cochran the favorite. He was well liked. No one can deny
he played a good game. He even won two immunities. I think the only one who can beat him is Eddie.<br />
<br />
2. Eddie (25% chance of winning). Eddie has not performed well in the challenges and has had almost no say over any aspect of the game. He's alive because Malcolm handed him an idol and he is weaker than Reynold, Andrea and Brenda. These are not compelling arguments for his candidacy. He never says anything
interesting, so I have no reason to pull for him. However, he has
friends on the jury, and he seemed to be well-liked overall. He might
win, though it would be a weak one. If he pulls it out, I hope he does something special the last episode to earn it a little more.<br />
<br />
3. Erik (20%). I still haven't
warmed up to him and I don't think I ever will. I thought his
existentialist speech about the island being a prison was overwrought.
It seems like the Survivors are suffering a lot more this season than
most. I can't figure out whether they have been given less than usual
or they are a bunch pf crybabies. As for Erik, I can't deny the fact
that there are avenues to him winning, especially if he's sitting next
to Sherri and Dawn (certainly possible). I have him lower than Eddie
because someone is leaving unexpectedly, and he seems a better candidate
to hurt himself than Eddie is.<br />
<br />
4. Dawn (15%). I've seen
people struggle emotionally in this game, but never for this long. She
is a mess. I don't think she's going to make it, that's why I have her
so low. Even if she makes it in front of the jury, I don't think she'll explain herself well. She has a case to make. I honestly don't know if she can make it. She has talked about showing the jury that she made big/tough decisions, but can she crawl out from under Cochran's shadow? I might be underestimating her, but she needs to pull it together quick.<br />
<br />
5. Sherri (10%). She doesn't say anything interesting,
doesn't do well in the challenges and made a lot of bad decisions
early. She's around because the good players cannibalized
each other. I don't think she was well liked. She might win if the
Favorites on the jury feel betrayed by Dawn/Cochran and decide to throw a
protest vote. I'm not rooting for her.<br />
<br />
It's pretty wide open, I just wish it was populated with a couple of stronger players. We'll see how this ends. </span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-77224003447140863372013-04-25T14:54:00.000-04:002013-04-25T14:54:04.430-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 11<span style="font-size: small;">I have seen many an episode of Survivor where the producers try to convince the audience that the majority alliance is going to crack, and I say to myself: 'nice try Survivor, but there is no way they are breaking this week', and they almost never do. However, last night, for the first 30 minutes, I actually thought they might fall apart.<br />
<br />
For those of you who read my last review, I thought Malcolm's double-idol blindside last week was great theatrics, but a poor long-term strategy. He was still down 6-3. The alliance had more than enough numbers. However, I was shocked at just how crushed the majority was by his maneuver. Brenda, who had been strong and sunny all game, was singing a funeral dirge. Dawn has been weeping for awhile, so she's not the best example, but, Sherri, who despises Eddie and Reynold, was actually talking about joining the boys out of sheer frustration and fear that they couldn't be beat.<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Even Cochran was temporarily gloomy. <br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">You can make fun of Phillip and his "</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Stealth-R-Us"
all you want. But, he created a feeling that you were part of a team.
And, even though he was not respected, and openly disliked, he provided
something that they immediately missed - a feeling of safety and
protection that comes from being in a larger group. Even though they
were still up 6-3, the majority had no confidence after the Malcolm maneuver. The formality of the group was gone. They were overrun with fear.<br />
<br />
I hate to compare Survivor to war, because the stakes are not the same, but you see this type of reaction a lot in military history when an army with a huge advantage in numbers becomes panicked by the superior tactics of the enemy</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">During
the Civil War, Robert E. Lee had so psyched out the Union generals that
they would commit blunder after blunder because they completely
overestimated Lee's capabilities (and, to be fair, they were also
horrified by the casualties). When Grant finally took over, his subordinates would </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">panic and yell, "Bobby Lee! Bobby
Lee! What's he going to do next?!?!!", and Grant would holler back:
"Let's stop worrying about what Bobby Lee's going to do and start
worrying about what we're going to do to </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Lee!" The Union had finally found a general who could defeat Lee.<br />
<br />
Anyhow, back to Survivor. While Brenda and Dawn were hiding in the field tent, two people stopped the panic - Andrea and Cochran. Andrea brilliantly blocked Malcolm from getting another idol, and Cochran got the clue and won immunity (Dawn was practically standing next to Cochran at the end of the challenge BEGGING him to win it). All of a sudden, when Cochran got the necklace, the boys no longer seemed invincible - and the reasons for bolting from the majority started to melt away.<br />
<br />
Eric is in a much better position with this group than Malcolm & Co. Bolting would make no sense (though Andrea did point out one possible reason - he was burned by an alliance of females the first time he played). Aside from that sort of irrationality, he's better off where he is.<br />
<br />
Sherri hates Reynold and Eddie, and her body language to Malcolm screamed "I AM NOT WITH YOU." Once Cochran had immunity, I never thought she was going.
It's also worth remembering she hasn't seen Malcolm's first season.
She didn't see him align with Denise and stick with her until the end. So, when he promised her the final two, those were probably less convincing words than they otherwise might have been. <br />
<br />
Anyhow, because of the fine work of Andrea and Cochran, the alliance held. <br />
<br />
The coming attractions show Cochran saying that this is the <i><b>beginning</b></i> of the end of the six-person
alliance. I believe it. It's 6-2 and time to start planning one's
endgame. But, I still think if Reynold doesn't win immunity, they'll
rally to ditch him. Eddie, who is less intimidating in
the challenges, might be useful to someone when it gets to seven (a
classic time to get a swing vote and make a move). The alliance might
start their cannibalizing then.<br />
<br />
Andrea and Cochran have been the two best players this season, and it would be nice to see them both in the finals. If only
one makes it because the other took him/her out, that's Survivor. If
they both don't make it, it's because the crybabies started to wise up.
Once Malcolm and Reynold are gone, there will be a lot less moaning and
a lot more ruthlessness. Right now, I think Cochran
might be in a better position to handle this than Andrea. I get the
vague feeling there are some people who are relying on him for strategic thinking. I also think they are more intimidated by Andrea. But, it should be interesting. These
are two very young players who (partly because they had the experience
of competing before), are playing at a very high level. I'm very
curious to see how it plays out. <br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><u><b>Malcolm's Requiem</b></u><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">I have to say a few more things about Malcolm now that he is gone. I've
been accused a couple of times this season of hating Malcolm. I like
Malcolm, I just think the producers oversell him as a player. He does a
lot of questionable things, and I point them out. I think he's a good
tacticia</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">n but terrible strategi</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">st. The
double-idol blindside was great tactics, but where's the long-term
strategy? Why did he bolt the main group for an alliance with people
who were not only disliked by many, but also feared (Corinne, Reynold & Eddie)? </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">However, he's a nice guy (and to his credit, the double-idol blindside did come closer to breaking the alliance than I thought it would). His closing comments were also very classy. He admitted to believing Sherri, and
I'm not going to blame him for that. He had only two choices - believe
Sherri or live in panic. Better to believe Sherri when you don't have
any other option. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">At some point you have to trust someone when all your other cards have been p</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">layed. <br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Finally, even though I criticized
him a lot, I'm going to miss him. He's more fun to watch than Reynold
or Eddie. He tries. He spent his money to get a clue, while the other
two sat there. I wish Reynold had gone instead, but the alliance (wisely) went for the more dangerous player. <br />
<br />
A few people have played this game three times. I'm sure, he's on the
producers short list. He might be overrated, but he's still fun TV.</span><br />
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-15808206292808326432013-04-24T01:43:00.002-04:002013-04-24T01:43:43.305-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Eps. 9 & 10<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">I never wrote a review of Episode 9 (it was sandwiched between two grueling baseball drafts), and Episode 11 is only hours away, so I have to play catch-up. Because I'm covering two episodes, I'm going to organize my comments around each Survivor,
rather than attempting some ill-conceived chronological report. I'll
start with the people driving the action and work my way through.<br />
<br />
<u><b>MALCOLM</b></u><br />
<br />
Here's the positive: while he is in the minority, he survived the last two votes and is still alive. <br />
<br />
But, there's a lot of negative stuff to discuss. <br />
<br />
First, he's in the minority because he put himself
there. I still don't understand why he went to Dawn with his plans of
usurpation right after Corinne got voted
out. True, he might not have realized Corinne did the same exact thing
the day before and it blew up in her face, but did he even ask himself why Corinne went home that night? I'll give him credit for acknowledging in the most recent episode that going to Dawn was a mistake, but I still don't know what he was thinking.<br />
<br />
As for his playing both immunity idols at tribal council and blindsiding the Favorites - I'll admit it was great TV! But, wasn't it too much style and not enough substance? Yes, he shocked the veteran
players. Yes, they were forced to cannibalize Phillip. But, how much
did he advance his minority alliance in the game? Malcolm, Eddie and
Reynold are still down 6-3. Is the plan going forward for Reynold to win every individual immunity and Malcolm to find two idols an episode?<br />
<br />
So, even though it was great theatrics, I think it was a
missed opportunity. Why not go to two people before the vote - tell
them you're playing both idols, and make it clear one of the majority is
going home? Isn't that the way you get a couple to flip and join your alliance? Instead, both idols were played, but he didn't get any agreements locked down before they were played.<br />
<br />
I'm not saying the minority is done. I just think they could have had more leverage if they got people to flip before tribal council.
[Note: the one important defense in Malcolm's favor is that he found
the second idol so close to tribal council that he might not have had
time to maneuver - which is certainly plausible. However, the ones who
knew about the idol pre-tribal council (Dawn & Andrea) had time to confer with the alliance and adjust their plans. So, there had to have been <i>some</i> time left].<br />
<br />
<u><b>DAWN</b></u><br />
<br />
When Andrea realized she was being targeted
two episodes ago, and (competently) adjusted the tribe's plans to
counteract it, Dawn had the biggest problem with it. I thought Dawn was
being unfair, unreasonable and selfish. Last week, we found out why - she was about to crack (which she did).<br />
<br />
Since her implosion, Brenda was able to find her retainer, Dawn got a decent meal at the reward, and she survived the vote. So,
maybe the seas will calm. I do have sympathy for Dawn's emotional
state. It's grueling out there. Dawn is playing for her kids, while
others think it's a dating service. I think the damage Dawn did to her game was minimal, and if her catharsis was in any way therapeutic, she will still be very much alive.<br />
<br />
However, why did Dawn suggest finding the idol to the alliance, and all she could do was talk to Andrea and Malcolm while he was finding it? Good idea, no delivery.<br />
<br />
<u><b>REYNOLD</b></u><br />
<br />
Malcolm is getting owned by Reynold in the challenges. He got lapped in the reward while digging up all the bags (correct strategy, poor
execution as compared to Reynold) and then he got smoked in the
immunity by Reynold. I'm not sure why anyone would align with Reynold
all the way to the final three.<br />
<br />
How is Reynold going to build a majority alliance if he doesn't win the next immunity? Hope Malcolm can do it? If Reynold loses the next immunity, I can see all those who are wavering say to themselves: 'now's the time to send this guy home. We'll listen to Malcolm's offers next time.'<br />
<br />
<u><b>ANDREA</b></u><br />
<br />
Malcolm's tribal council blindside might have saved
here. If people had gotten wind beforehand, the Favorites might have
chosen to ditch her (they were murmuring about it right before the
vote). <br />
<br />
At least she figured out the plot against her the episode before. There
could be a lot of knives out for her every week. We'll see how many
she can dodge.<br />
<br />
<u><b>COCHRAN</b></u><br />
<br />
Making all the right moves. Providing tremendous commentary. Hard not to root for.<br />
<br />
<u><b>BRENDA</b></u><br />
<br />
Under the radar, but looking strong. She'll need to know when to make the crucial move. I think it's in her to do so (it's not like her game is filled with missed opportunities, thus far!).</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
<u><b>PHILLIP</b></u><br />
<br />
He took one for the team, in many ways. He said at tribal for everyone to 'stick to the plan, and force them to play their idols, and if I go home, I go home.' <br />
<br />
It made it easy for everyone to stick to the plan (only Erik didn't) and
it forced Malcolm and Eddie to play the idols (which they had to, as it
turns out - Eddie & Phillip both got four votes). Phillip did sacrifice himself. I think he did it partially to save Andrea, who he played with before.<br />
<br />
As for Phillip not performing in
the immunity, he never would have won that. He was the first out of the
immunity the week before (when you had to stay in the water under the grating). Whether he had a childhood experience or not is moot - he's not comfortable in the water, and never would have won either one. I can't criticize him for what he did.<br />
<br />
<u><b>EDDIE</b></u><br />
<br />
Might have had a window to get Andrea on his side, but that seems to have closed (even though he did g<span style="font-family: arial;">i</span>ve her the info to save herself). He might now be stuck in an observer role as others decide his fate <br />
<br />
<u><b>ERIK</b></u><br />
<br />
He might make it to the final four, but I'm
less and less confident he can win. There are too many good players
left, and he's not one of them. I'm not forgetting that I've seen Fabio
fly under the radar and win the last few immunities to win the whole thing, but Erik would lose a game of tic-tac-toe to Fabio, who was no gen<span style="font-family: arial;">ius</span>. <br />
<br />
<u><b>SHERRI</b></u> <br />
<br />
Jeff really rode her during the last reward challenge ('Sherri slowing things down for her tribe as she crosses the planks', etc.) when it really was not her fault (it was Malcolm's). It's not the first time I've found Jeff unfairly picking on a Survivor during group challenges. My theory is that it's because Sherri hardly says anything during tribal council. Jeff hates that, and will rag on you when given the opportunity.<br />
<br />
<u><b>M</b></u><u><b>ICHAEL</b></u><br />
<br />
Didn't show much the entire game. I expect a lot of
gratuitous snarling and undue facial expressions while he sits in the
jury box.<br />
<br />
* * *<br />
<br />
I enjoyed the last two episodes! It should be fun going down the home stretch!</span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-84449208383055205672013-04-21T08:37:00.001-04:002013-04-21T08:37:15.704-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 8<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">If you have not seen it,
last week's episode was by far the best of this season. I’m tempted to quote
every line by Cochran (his commentary was that outstanding!), but I would be
merely repeating his fine work. I'll stick to some general observations.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><br />
<br />
After watching the episode, I am convinced of two things:<br />
<br />
1. Corinne opens her presents Christmas Eve.<br />
2. Malcolm opens his presents Christmas morning.<br />
<br />
Both Corinne and Malcolm were on board with the same plan, but Corinne had to blab it to the wrong person way too early. She was like Dr. Evil explaining to Austin Powers everything that had been plotted and then being shocked when the plan was thwarted.<br />
<br />
Corinne, I realize your proud of your plan. I realize you hate Phillip. But, show some patience. </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">Don't run and tell everything to Dawn. Tell Dawn 20 minutes before the next vote when there is nothing she can do about it. Don't tell her your blindside move two votes in advance! Malcolm was on board and he was able to keep his mouth shut<span style="font-family: Arial;">, why couldn’t you!</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial;">The conclusion I must
arrive to is this: among the remaining Favorites, Corinne was an inferior
player compared to the likes of Cochran, Dawn, and even... Philip. The
Favorites beautifully came together and orchestrated a counter-action to
destroy Corinne. It was awesome.</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">In summary:<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Great challenge (I love the food eating challenges)<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Great </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">commentary from Cochran <br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Great last minute maneuveri</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">ng and blindside.<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Great episode! Thank you Survivor!</span><br />
<br />
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-78002738162198269962013-04-02T01:42:00.002-04:002013-04-02T01:42:19.272-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 7<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"></span></span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">Last
week's reward challenge (where they raced around an oval track in
knee-deep water trying to catch the other tribe) is one of the more
exciting challenges the show has come up with. But, they completely
wasted it here. First, the challenege is incredibly grueling, so it
really ought to be saved for an immunity challenege. Second, because
it's so physical, and the tribes are so mismatched, there was no chance
of it ever being competitive (when they ran the challenge in Palau, it
was one of the more epic competitions in the show's history). Instead,
in this incarnation, we were treated to one of the more pathetic
efforts (I've watched games of Solitaire that were more exciting) and
whiny scapegoating the show has ever offered (does anyone really think
it was Phillip's faulty strategy that caused them to lose?). Fischer at
Reykjavik could not have drawn a gameplan that would have produced a W
for Phillip's team. Frankly, if I were on the tribe, I would have
suggested forfeiting. Why waste the energy on a hopeless endeavor?</span></span></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">Cochran
is a lot easier to like this time out. The first time he played
Survivor he was in a complete panic that he would humiliate himself -
and, of course, that is precisely what he wound up doing. But, being
invited back as a favorite seems to have calmed him down. As a result,
you get to hear his insights and observations (which are pretty
entertaining). The other thing calming him down is the fact that he's
in a very powerful position. Next week they merge (thankfully) and
there might be 4 or 5 primary targets, but I don't think anyone will be
gunning for Cochran soon. Rather, I think the different factions will
be looking to Cochran and Dawn for their votes. They might be the ones
making the decisions.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">Speaking of the much-needed merge, now might be a good time to handicap the 12 remaining players' chances of winning.<span> </span>[I’m
going to mention the alpha/athletic-males quite a bit because there are
a lot of them left for this stage of the game, and the last episode
indicated they were aligning.<span> </span>How that resolves itself will dictate much of the rest of the game.]</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">1.
Cochran: I think he's in a great position right now. His one weak spot
is that he betrayed his alliance the first time he played. It could
get people nervous about him later in the game.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">2.
Malcolm: Has the idol. I am very skeptical about an athletic-male
alliance, but we'll see. An alpha-male alliance of four, where two have
an idol, is formidable. However, my gut tells me that even if it got
going, when they got down to nine, the five people outside the inner
four would unite to destroy it. But, with an idol, Malcolm might
survive that process. So, in sum, if he sticks with his Favorite
alliance, I think he's in great shape. If he goes with the
athletic-male alliance and it works, he still might be in great shape.
And, if the athletic-male alliance blows up, he might still be OK.<span> </span>I think he’s going to go with the alpha-males because he didn’t last game, and it partially explains why he lost.<span> </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">3.
Dawn: She is poised to go very deep unless an alpha-male alliance
overturns everything and puts her in a minority (which kind of happened
to her the first time she played when Cochran's treachery left her in a
minority).</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">4.
Andrea: Her athleticism and good looks might make her more of a target
than Cochran/Dawn. But, there's no doubt she can play and she's
dangerous. However, I think everyone sort of knows it. She's not under
the radar enough. She could use an alpha-male war to distract everyone
from her.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">5.
Phillip. He's crazy, but why can't he win? Despite being slightly
unhinged, he is reasonably honest and loyal. I think he could stumble
into the final three - and, he has a case to be made if he gets there.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">6.
Brenda: Under the radar. She's gotten less attention or camera time
than anyone left. Her first time out, she was the center of everything,
and it blew up in her face. She has learned much since then.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">7.
Reynold: Has an idol and might have an alliance with Malcolm. He's
been the best in the challenges so far. Until we know how the
athletic-male alliance shakes out, he's hard to rank. After the next
episode. he could be in the top 3 or going home.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">8. Erik: He's still pretty dumb. He's in a good position, but I don't know if he'll be able to close it out. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">9. Eddie: Might be in the dominant alliance. Might be going home next. Who knows?</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">10. Corinne: I don't think she's liked enough to get her through the mid-rounds. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">11. Mike: Corinne's protection does not offer much cover. It's like carrying a parasol in a monsoon. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">12.
Sherri: Made too many early mistakes. Who is her ally now? Nobody,
that's who. Maybe she could latch on to an anti-alpha-male alliance.
Maybe she can survive on the sidelines during an alpha-male war. But,
even if she made the final 3, who would vote for her? All the people
who liked her are gone.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif';">As
noted before, after a strong start, the show went through a 3-4 week
dry spell. Hopefully, the merge shakes things up and provides some
decent action.</span></div>
</span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-27926557069794117972013-03-26T23:54:00.001-04:002013-03-26T23:54:01.348-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 5 & 6<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">It's
been a while since I posted something. I think it's because: (a) I
though the last few episodes have been below average, and (b) I don't
have too much to say about them.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Brandon
is a deeply disturbed person, but his histrionics seemed a tad staged
to me. I'm not saying he isn't a tortured individual. I'm not saying
he doesn't lack self-control. But, the whole thing seemed a little
forced. Brandon didn't lose control. Brandon decided to act like he
had lost control.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Brandon's
first time on Survivor was a mess. He played a very confused game.
Was he playing to win? For honor? For Jesus? Or, as Coach's pawn? It
was hard to tell. When he got back home, he was criticized from all
angles for blowing it. When he came out the second time, I don't think
he knew what he wanted to do. He didn't have a game plan or
father-figure to lean on. He was outside the main alliance. He felt
vulnerable. He crumbled. He went looking for a reason to be the center
of attention for an episode and get the heck out. Frankly, it's a
pathetic way to quit. Brandon might be the author of his own fate but
only a lunatic would write such a script.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">After
the Brandon meltdown, Corinne made a crucial observation. She realized
that no one defended or comforted her or Phillip after they had
borne the brunt of Brandon's diatribes. I'm not saying the tribe
defended Brandon, I'm just saying Corinne and Phillip didn't get much
personal sympathy and that should be a major red flag that they are not
particularly liked. We'll see if Corinne will use this realization to
her advantage and sniff out a blind-side in the nick of time. My hunch
is she won't and will have a meltdown. For those looking to eliminate
Corinne, my advice is to do it before she gets on the jury.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">I
have a gripe with how they reshuffled the tribes. I had no problem
with making sure both tribes were going to be 4-3 majority-Favorites. I
think it would be unfair to shuffle and have some Favorites in a
minority. The Favorites had rightly earned to be in a dominant
position. My problem, though, was that the rest of the allocation was
random and the next challenge was incredibly physical. Whenever you
have a random allocation, you risk creating significantly mismatched
tribes (which happened here). I think it's fairer to have a more
strategic or knowledge-based challenge. Instead, they ran one of the
most physical challenges in the show's history, and next week's
challenge looks just as tough. I have no idea why they are doing it
like this, but I don't like it. I want competitive challenges
not blowouts.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Next
week's preview showed Malcolm possibly aligning with Reynold.
Alliances like that make sense early on (strong men do better when
aligned to strong men), but I think it's too late for that now. How
does Malcolm expect to win a jury vote if he betrays the Favorites? Has
he been keeping track? The whole jury is going to be made up of
Favorites - they already outnumber the Fans 8-5! Hopefully, the preview
was misleading.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">One
last point - since I criticized the producers I should say they were
right to give both tribes a bag of rice after Brandon dumped his. Rule
#1 of Survivor is that you can't hit another contestant, so how exactly
are you supposed to restrain someone from dumping your food supply?
Giving both tribes a bag seemed like a fair solution.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size: small;">Here's
to tomorrow's episode being more fun than the last two! (Then again,
even a bad episode of Survivor is still better than almost anything else
on TV!) </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size: small;">Later.</span></span></div>
John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-87387524460833586302013-03-13T14:26:00.000-04:002013-03-13T14:26:26.136-04:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 4<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;">I'm going to squeeze in a short review of last week's debacle.<br />
<br />
It's now clear that Sherri's plan to drag Shamar to the Final 3 was pure fantasy. He was never going to
make it. I'm not denying he was legitimately hurt, but he's the first
Survivor to hurt himself while laying in the tent. I think this guy was
going to get medically evacuated at some point no matter what. I've
seen abrasive people make it to the end, but it is very rare for people
who won't get out of the tent to make it to the end. I thought the love
his alliance showed him last week would pick him up, instead he used
the leverage to get Sherri to bring him his meals. Atrocious.<br />
<br />
Shamar single-handedly blew the reward by lying on the platform and telling people to stand on his back. That is incredibly inefficient.
If they had won the reward, the protein from the chicken dinner might
have pushed them over the top in the immunity challenge. Instead, they lost both challenges and two people. T</span></span><span style="font-size: small;">he decision to keep Shamar over Hope steamrolled into a disaster.</span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Seeing
as Sherri engineered this debacle, it's fitting that she now appears to
be on the bottom of her alliance, if not her tribe. Her defense of
Laura ("we haven't been winning any challenges anyway") was rightly rejected - even Julia wanted to side with the guys. Sherri voted with them because she had no choice.</span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Fans are down 9-6, have no idol and there's no sign of a re-mix of tribes. They need the Favorites to implode, and luckily for them, Mount Brandon is close to erupting.</span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-24910817150555267842013-03-02T17:37:00.000-05:002013-03-02T17:37:06.592-05:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 3 <span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">I've been the commissioner of a fantasy baseball league since 1999.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> There is one owner who has quit the league at least four times. <br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">It's the same formula: he has a heated argument (often with multiple owners), he loses, and then he quits. I wait a while, a</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">nd then I get an owner who wasn't really in the argument to e-mailhim and tell him everyone in the league wants him to come back.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">It has always worked. Four times he has quit, four times he has returned. Every couple of years, he needs t</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">he league to show him a little love. He's our Shamar.<br />
<br />
After the Fans lost immunity, there was no talk of giving Shamar what he wanted and voting him out. Shamar didn't ask for it either. All
that had been said the day before had been forgotten. Once Shamar
heard from the ladies in his alliance that they wanted him to stay, the
quit-talk was over. I say "the ladies", because I don't think Shamar </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">cares what Matt</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">
or Mike thinks. Matt had his run-in with Shamar on Day 1 and right
before the last challenge Mike offered to slap hands with Shamar as a
good luck gesture and got totally dissed.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Obviously, I think things aren't right with the alliance and Shamar has </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">major problems in his immediate future. He had a decent idea hinting to Hope to vote for Ed</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">die, but the execution was awful. It was too cryptic for Hope to figure out what he meant, and it got back to his alliance and caused a panic in Laura, who was
already sick of him ("the part of Shamar that was fun is completely
gone"). With Mike and Matt not having much of a relationship with
Shamar, how long can Sherri protect her
"Phillip"? Boston Rob protected Phillip to the Final 3 because he
reasonably controlled him. I don't think Sherri can control Shamar.
Phillip would never go against a BR order and plant ideas in the head of
the next person going home. Phillip would never disrespect a member of the alliance. Sherri might be forced by her alliance to let Shamar go or lose her alliance altogether.<br />
<br />
<u>Other Thoughts:</u><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Brandon has been handed a gift, and he can't see it. Because he (deservedly) earned a reputation for loyalty in his first season, the main alliance might </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">replace
Corinne with him. But, Brandon is suspicious of the messenger (Andrea)
and the fact that they might be trying to placate him because he
threatened to p</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">ee in the rice. He has a reasonable suspicion on th</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">at last point, which is why you shouldn't go around threatening to pee in the rice. H</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">is wild talk has created the situation that he finds himself in - one where the alliance's offers might be reasonably tainted. Great gameplay, Brandon! You've given everyone a reason to mislead you and a reason to distrust everything said to you! Genius!<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Malcolm has been removed from the closer role (he did </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">little o</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">f
the tossing in the challenge) and found the idol. He also has an
alliance with an older woman who knows he has the idol. It's identical
to last season (except for the fact that his initial
tribe is winning). If there is going to be a war between Corinne and
Andrea, and Corinne loses (which is probable), Malcolm can probably escape unscathed (I doubt he would give the idol to save Corinne). I w</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">as very skeptical of his chances this time out, but he looks set to go deep into the game again.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- I would like to know more about how close Laura was to bolting her alliance.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- If Hope had understoo</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">d Shamar's cryptic mes</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">sage and voted for Eddie, </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">she'd still be in the game.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Good episode. I'm lik</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">ing this season. </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">I
can't wait for the Andrea/Corinne collision and to see whether Brandon
melts down and does something incredibly stupid. Where's Coach </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">when you need him?</span><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-82634464140217580982013-02-27T02:13:00.003-05:002013-02-27T02:13:11.915-05:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 2<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">This episode's immunity challenge presented an example of another advantage the Favorites have over the Fans - personnel management. <br />
<br />
The Favorites have seen each other play before (except for Malcolm), and know everyone's strengths and weaknesses (which might explain why Malcolm is still closing - his tribemates haven't seen his season yet, so they are just learning that he can't close). Anyhow, it didn't matter. In addition to the inherent disadvantage of not yet knowing their tribemates' strengths and weaknesses, the Fans do not know how to communicate, Shamar threw a tantrum during the discussion regarding assignments, so they wound up with the wrong people on the wrong tasks. They had three men pulling the raft (</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Shamar could have pulled the raft single-handedly), which was </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">the least important leg of the challenge (something the Favorites knew, which is why they hid Cochrane there). <span style="font-family: arial;">Instead, t</span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">hey should
have included at least one of their top male athletes on the diving team </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">(the Favorites wisely chose Erik)</span>. Men have up to 50%
more lung capacity than women and can hold their breath much longer</span></span></span></span>,
which is why men have dominated diving throughout the history of
Survivor. (Has any of these so-called Fans seen the show before?). <span style="font-family: arial;">O</span>f the three women they did sen<span style="font-family: arial;">d</span> diving - only Sherri showed <span style="font-family: arial;">any</span> effort. I'm not sure the other two could swim. It was a complete disaster.<br />
<br />
As for the vote, the cool kids seemed overly nonchalant about the strength of their alliance outside of their <span style="font-family: arial;">core</span> four. They
knew they were alienating themselves with their cliquish behavior, so
you'd think they would try to work more angles then they did. Eddie
looked generally surprised by the vote - <span style="font-family: arial;">d</span>id he really think their strategy was a slam dunk because Shamar misbehaved in camp? <span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Why would someone agree to be the 5th or 6th wheel to an ultra<span style="font-family: arial;">-</span>tight four-person alliance?<br />
</span><br />
Allie might have spoken fewer words on air than anyone ever to play Survivor. She had some spirited closing remarks after getting booted, but before that we hardly saw her say anything. Reynold told her Matt's voting with them, and I guess she thought it was enough. <span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Passive.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Laur</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">a call</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">ed the four-person alliance the "pretty people". There was real contempt in her voice, as if they were making her feel like she was in the loser clique in high school. Laura is att</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">ractive and bright,<span style="font-family: arial;"> t</span>herefore, if <span style="font-family: arial;">the core four</span> <span style="font-family: arial;">wa</span>s making her feel that alienated, <span style="font-family: arial;">they</span>
must have been sending out horrible vibes. Of course, Laura might also
have a chip on her shoulder, but I'm guessing this was more of the
alliance's fault seeing as Laura wasn't the only one complaining.<br />
<br />
All tolled, <span style="font-family: arial;">o</span>utside of the <span style="font-family: arial;">core four</span>, this tribe is not communicating well.
Shamar is not a leader and can't be lead. They are making horrible
assignments at challenges. There is a distinct mistrust and anger
within the tribe, and a lot of this can be attributed to the main alliance. And, I'm not sure the problem can be fixed.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">The bottom line </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">is this: Survivor is a social game, and every member of that four-person alliance is guilty of atrocious game play. They are also guilty of atrocious arithmetic. When you have ten people in your tribe, you need SIX people in your alliance. Four people and two afterthoughts do not equal six. The afterthoughts (if they know they are afterthoughts, which this group made clear) will not be loyal. A four-person alliance with two afterthoughts is still a four-person alliance.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Allie, we hardly knew you, but you </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">deserved to go<span style="font-family: arial;">.</span> <br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><u>Other thoughts:</u><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Laura calling out Reynold's idol</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> helps Reynold - no? Isn't Reynold better off now that everyone knows he has it without announcing it himself, which could sound like bragging</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">?<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Brandon, calm down. You're acting like a friggin'
lunatic. You're only 21. You have your whole working life ahead of
you, and you're making yourself unemployable. Who the heck would ever
hire you after the way you've been acting? Shamar has been a loudmouth,
but it's partly for show. You're serious. You're not acting. That's what's scary about it.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Two people this episode (Brandon and Michael) made the argument that it was
somehow cruel to vote Francesca out first. I don't buy it for one
second. I'm not saying there aren't any ethics in Survivor, I just
don't think they include giving Francesca a free pass the first </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">vote. No one owed her anything. The people who suggest they did owe her something are asserting a false moral superiority. I was not impressed by it.<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">This was a pretty good episode when you consider there was only on<span style="font-family: arial;">e challenge</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">. I'm enjoying the season thus far.</span><br />
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-3750800448399872092013-02-22T09:10:00.001-05:002013-02-22T09:10:10.718-05:00Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites II, Ep. 1<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">In the original Fans vs. Favorites,</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"> the returning players completely dominated. There were three key elements: the returnees were a strong group; they had existing relationships; and the quality of the Fans was atrocious (so atrocious that this season marks the first time any of that group of ten Fans has returned, and Erik's claim to fame is pulling one of the dumbest moves in the history of the game). So, the first Fans vs. Favorites turned into the Globetrotters vs. the Generals.<br />
<br />
This incarnation feels more like Fans vs. Misfits. There are a lot of low quality players returning. When Probst
was introducing them as they came off the chopper, I got the feeling
the Fans didn't know who some of them were (I heard crickets when
Corinne was introduced). Therefore, having won the first immunity challenge, should we give the Fans more of a chance?<br />
<br />
I'm reminded of a scene from the classic sitcom, Taxi. Tony's brakes fail and he almost gets into an accident. He storms into the garage furious with management over their cavalier regard to driver safety. The other drivers vote Tony shop steward - he meets with Louie, and totally blows it (Louie manipulates him into doing nothing). The drivers recall him as shop steward and open the floor to new nominees. <br />
<br />
Jim: I nominate Tony!<br />
Alex: Jim?!?!? Why would you nominate Tony?<br />
Jim: Alex, there is no substitute for experience!<br />
<br />
And, that kind of sums up how I feel about the returning players. Yes, some of them were terrible, but I've seen many people improve significantly in their second appearance. Yes, they lost immunity, but they dominated both challenges (it's just that Malcolm couldn't close the immunity challenge - something he was prone to doing last season). I still believe the Favorites/Misfits will be stronger long-term.<br />
<br />
But, there are warning signs. I thought Brandon could improve his second time out, but he looks shaky. He's repeating his same antics from his first season, i.e., targeting
strong women he is attracted to (Mikayla last time, Andrea last week).
He has no father figure to lead him this time the way Coach did last
(unless you count Phillip, who needed his own shepard in Boston Rob when he played). Brandon is talking about pulling a "Hantz" and seeding chaos. I'm not sure what that gets him. Why doesn't he emulate his uncle and find a hidden immunity? Just a thought.<br />
<br />
Francesca deserved to go. If you're aim is to get revenge in your first vote, it will blow up in your face (see the Chinese proverb: <i>before seeking revenge, dig two graves</i>). There was no subtlety to what she was doing. They came back from the challenge and she immediately told 5 people to vote Philip. Awkward.<br />
<br />
I'd still bet on the Favorites in the long-term, but it was a bad start for them:<br />
<br />
Other thoughts:<br />
<br />
- Was it in Philip's contract that he can only return if he wears the pink/purple undies? The producers must have insisted on that?<br />
<br />
- Why is Chochran sunburned? I'm pretty sure they get lotion.<br />
<br />
-
Erik, I'm sorry Phillip intimidated you about having the numbers. Get
over it. It's part of the game. He made you an offer you couldn't refuse, and you refused it. Fine. You're allowed to. Stop whining about it ("he didn't eve give m<span style="font-family: arial;">e</span> a choice..."). Did you want his offer to include an option where you could vote him out? Exactly what choices did you want Phillip to offer? <br />
<br />
- I
think Cochran might be a lot stronger this time around. He's still
doing the Woody Allen schtick, but he doesn't seem as scared as he was
before.<br />
<br />
- When I close my eyes while Eddie is speaking, I hear the voice of Dan Ennis' old roommate, Jeff (if you don't know who Jeff is, kindly disregard).<br />
<br />
- Shamar is a showboat. He manipulated that whole water/shelter thing to look like the hero. It won't work. I don't have confidence in him to go deep.<br />
<br />
- The 4-person alliance of the cool kids
among the Fans is likely doomed. That strategy has rarely worked.
These people want to play some deserted island dating game - have it on
TV - and then go home and enjoy the 15 minutes. This is one of the
reasons I'm skeptical about the Fans - between those 4 and Shamar, they
have a lot of questionable players.<br />
<br />
Overall it was a good episode. They jumped right into a challenge and it never dragged from there. Malcolm's failures in clutch spots is something to watch. We'll see what happens in week 2.</span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-23240082091006057012013-01-23T13:42:00.002-05:002013-01-23T13:42:49.733-05:00PrioritiesPresident Obama <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/21/can-obama-tackle-climate-change-in-his-second-term/" target="_blank">said</a> the following in his Second Inaugural Address on Monday:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We, the people, still believe that our obligations as Americans are not
just to ourselves, but to all posterity. We will respond to the threat
of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our
children and future generations. </blockquote>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Betraying future generations on the climate = BAD.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Leaving them a $20 trillion debt =
OK.</span> John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-84431546701438781692012-12-18T02:25:00.002-05:002012-12-18T02:28:42.262-05:00Survivor: Philipines, Post-Mortem<div id="AOLMsgPart_1_b6c7407b-acaa-4796-9a12-33a34bc1f749">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
</span></span><br />
<div style="color: black; font-family: arial,helvetica; font-size: 10pt;">
<div id="AOLMsgPart_1_ed96c4b5-24fb-401c-9441-d12fe307485d">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">It has been my observation that the more returning players there
are in the game, the crankier the jury seems to be. I think returning
players carry higher expectations. They are also more likely to feel
betrayed by the actions of other returning players who they might have
had a previous relationship with.</span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Last season was a cast of all newbies, and the jury had been lied to like no other. But, because the Deceiver (Kim) was so dosh-garn nice about it, the jury couldn't find the will to punish her by voting for a more honest player.</span></span></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Sunday's jury was not nearly as accommodating for arguably much less deceitful players.
What exactly had Lisa or Skupin done that was so horrific? Lisa was
reasonably loyal to her tribe. Skupin - less so, but they didn't even
pretend to be loyal to him. One could argue the worst betrayal in the
game was Kent's attempt to backstab Penner. Either way, Lisa and Skupin
were much more honorable than Kim was
last season. They burned Malcolm in advancing to the final 3, but Kim
burned EVERYONE except the people who made it to the final 3.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The one other jury member who had a legitimate gripe this go-around
was Abi. I thought Denise had been way too tough on her a few weeks
ago. Nevertheless, Abi wound up voting for her tormentor, while Skupin
was being mocked by the likes of Kent and Penner. It was the first time
in Survivor history where a player was mocked for NOT getting any
votes.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Any jury with Artis and Kent on it is going to be cranky, so maybe
the returning players had nothing to do with it - but that jury seemed
unduly agitated. And, don't forget that the most unruly jury in
Survivor history was the one for All-Stars (ALL returning
players). Returning players are generally more entertaining, but
they often become rotten apples, spoiling the barrel. Anyway, Denise
got a lot more support than I thought she would. I'm not saying I
didn't think she could win. I just didn't think she would win so
handily (6-1-1). She did hide behind Malcolm and his idol. I get the
feeling Kent, Penner and Malcolm lobbied hard for Denise on Ponderosa -
and it worked.</span><br />
<div style="color: black; font-family: arial,helvetica; font-size: 10pt;">
<div id="AOLMsgPart_1_8271c69f-3d4b-4252-bd74-839836b04275">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span><div>
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><div>
<span style="font-size: small;">Bottom Line: that final 3 was much more ethical than an average
final 3, but the jury seemed a tad more disagreeable than usual. </span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><u>Other Thoughts</u></b>:</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">1. Denise's opening
statement was a bit arrogant. I though it noteworthy, though, that she
said she would make no apologies, and then apologized to Abi in the
Q&A. It might have gotten her another vote. <br />
<br />
2. <span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">I thought Penner had a good season and a bad tribal council. You can make your points without resorting to name-calling (he called Denise a b*tch) or ridicule (he mocked Skupin that he wouldn't get any votes). None of this was on par with Susan's infamous Snakes and Rats Speech
from Season One or the temper tantrums Lex and Big Tom threw in
All-Stars (I thought they were going to burn the set down, they were so
ticked), nevertheless, Penner's antics came across as classless. He recovered a bit in the Reunion Show.<br />
<br />
</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">3. In the Reunion Show, Kent was asked about his Penner obsession and played dumb (unlike Abi, who showed a lot of humility, and acknowledged she had room to improve). Instead, Kent decided to weasel out of the question. What a creep.</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">4. I'm glad Probst addressed the fact that he might have picked on Katie a little too much. That was one of my pet peeves this season. </span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">5. I'm also glad Dawson was able to get one last (cringe-inducing) kiss in.</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">6. Next
season is another Fans vs. Favorites. For those of you who never saw
the first Fans vs. Favorites five years ago, the returning players
absolutely dominated. At times it was humiliating (Globetrotters vs.
Generals-type humiliation). I think part of the problem is the
returning players were particularly capable, and the fans included two
of the dumbest people ever to appear on American television (Erik and
Jason).</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<div>
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-size: small;">7. I get the feeling that Malcolm will be
returning to Fans vs. Favorites. The producers really sold him this
season, even though he lost. My instincts tell me he is not nearly as
nice of a guy, or as good of a player, as the cut he got. They have really sold players twice in the past (Rupert as superhero and Russell as supervillain), and both
had been invited to return the very next season. The producers were
making sure they stood out to the audience in their own ways.
Furthermore, Jeff asked Malcolm if he would play again. Jeff does that
when he knows something. One other point: Fans vs. Favorites has
already been filmed, which means no one would know who Malcolm is. I
bet he did poorly. When he was on stage in the Reunion Show, he looked
like a guy who had lost twice.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<div>
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-size: small;">8. I hope the Favorites they bring back are
all players who have appeared only once before. I don't need to
see multiple retreads. I also hope they pull people from early
seasons. For example, I've always wanted to see Ian or Greg (from
Palau) play again. Heck, if you want to go old school, Greg from season
1 is one of my all-time faves. But, they will probably rely on recent
seasons (they've played 5 seasons since Heroes vs. Villains) so they
should have a decent supply of one-timers from that player pool. From
last season, alone, they could take: Colton, Kim, Kat, Sabrina, Tarzan
or Troyzan. From the season before, they could take Russell's nephew
(Brandon) and Woody Allen (Cochran). From Redemption Island: Philip and
Matt. From Nicaragua: Marty, Fabio and Holly. It looks like in the
coming season it will be 10 Fans vs. 10 Favorites. I hope they think
outside the box when bringing back former players. I don't need to see
the kooks again (Phillip and Tarzan). I'd much rather see the competent ones get another chance.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: small;">Overall, I thought it was an above-average season that ran out of steam towards the end. Six on a scale of 1-10.</span></div>
<div>
</div>
</span></span></div>
</div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
</span></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-36756215779128362512012-12-16T05:41:00.005-05:002012-12-16T05:41:57.907-05:00Survivor: Philipines, Going into the Finale<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">I don't have too much to say about the last two episodes. Yes, they tried to create some drama about
whether Lisa would break her word and blindside Malcolm. I don't know
if she would have, but it was made moot by his two immunity wins. The
bottom line is this: the final four alliance held. It formed at seven, and methodically voted off Penner, Carter and Abi.<br />
<br />
As for tonight, they all seem to think it will be three at the final tribal. If so, how are they going to fill a two hour show? Previous seasons that have had a final three, also had five survivors entering into the final episode. It sounds like they are going to fill the hole with a reward challenge. If so, the first hour tonight could really drag. I'm guessing this is happening because of Dana's untimely exit. They still had tribal council that episode (after many evacuations
they don't). Anyway, they probably didn't stretch things out, they
instead decided to just have four at the end and an extra reward
challenge.<br />
<br />
If all this is true, there is only one immunity left. If
Malcolm wins that, he probably wins the game. If he loses that, he's
probably gone, and then the voting becomes more intriguing. In that
scenario, Lisa might become the favorite. Bear in mind, though, Penner has probably told everybody at Ponderosa about her child
star status, and that could effect voting. Also, as I said a few weeks
ago, I think Lisa might struggle answering the jury's questions.<br />
<br />
Denise has to explain that she did more than hide behind Malcolm's idol. She is articulate, so she has a shot to do that. <br />
<br />
As for Skupin - I just don't think enough jurors
respect him. When Pete was trying to save himself, he said maybe
Skupin will go for his plan because he doesn't think things through.
Pete said it matter-of-factly and rather cooly. I got the feeling he
wasn't the only one who thought that. Roberta will probably vote
for Skupin, and Lisa might, if she were on the jury. But, I don't see
where he'll get other votes from. Abi? Penner? Artis? Kent? I don't see it. When he made that </span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">pre-merge </span></span></span></span></span></span>deal with Penner, his tribe went off on him (and looked like they had fun doing it). Then, again, Skupin might have ultimately been the most likeable person out there. And, if he's sitting next to Denise and Lisa, he might get votes.<br />
<br />
All in all, it's a respectable final
four. Any one of them would be a legitimate winner. Malcolm and Lisa
have probably played the best games so far. But, for some reason, I find myself rooting for Lisa and Skupin over Malcolm and Denise. <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">When I look at Malcolm, I see his early passivity when his tribe crashed and burned. There is something charming about Skupin's cheerful innocence. I look at Denise, and I
see someone doing a job. I look at Skupin and see someone on an
adventure. As for Lisa, I'm happy for her that she did so well. <br />
<br />
<u><b>Odds of Winning</b></u>:<br />
<br />
45% Malcolm </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">25% Lisa <br />
20% Denise <br />
10% Skupin <br />
<br />
</span></span>One last question: who will be the most excited person at tonight's reunion show? The winner or Dawson (tonight she gets to see Probst again)?</span></span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-29590793050554893322012-12-16T05:40:00.003-05:002012-12-16T05:40:44.615-05:00Survivor: Philipines, Ep. 11<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"></span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">Well, I guess Kent is finally happy?</span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">
<div>
</div>
<div>
Penner really blew it. Skupin and Lisa offerred him an alliance to
the end and Penner inexplicably turned it down. It was too soon, he
said? This is a three-time veteran making a rookie mistake. Hasn't he
been watching Lisa's game? Once the Church Lady gives her word, there
is no going back: she's voting the way Malcolm and Denise tell her to
vote - er, she's voting with her alliance. Period.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
If Lisa liked Penner so much, couldn't she have done more than tell
him to "work his magic." Couldn't she have tried to persuade her
alliance to vote Carter instead? Just asking because it seems to
me Lisa has a better shot to win without Penner in the game. She said
this is not about the money. Whenever someone says that, it usually is
about the money. I'm not criticizing her, mind you. But, she ain't
Seinfeld. I'm sure the Facts of Life money dried up a long time
ago. But, even if she doesn't need the check, winning would still be
fun. She's got to be thinking about that just a little - no? Leaving
the decision of who to vote next to her alliance absolves her of the
guilt of voting Penner while advancing her in the game. That is what we
call a win-win. </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
I thought Skupin might flip, but it would be almost impossible for
him to win if he had (he would have betrayed most of the jury). By
staying loyal he still has a decent path to a victory. He needs to win
the immunity when they get to 4 and vote Malcolm out (Malcolm can't play
the idol once you get to 4). It would be him, Denise and Lisa in the
final 3. Skupin might be able to win that vote. <br />
</div>
<div>
<strong> </strong></div>
<div>
<strong>Other</strong> <strong>Stuff:</strong></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Congrats to Abi on showing some backbone. She could have pigged
out at the reward and gone home. At least she fought. She went in
there determined to get the immunity advantage, and she won. Of course,
she was unable to build any goodwill after her agonizing confrontation
with Penner about what went on at the previous tribal council. I wonder
why Abi chose to confront Penner instead of Denise, when it was Denise
who had more harsh things to say the night before? Is it because
Abi realized Denise would destroy her a second time, whereas Penner
might actually show some compassion? </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Carter is showing some athletic prowess. He has been very
competitive in the challenges. So, has Skupin. Malcolm, not so much
so. I wonder if Malcolm is holding back a little because the idol is
protecting him and he doesn't want to be seen as a physical threat? </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Carter can win. It's feasible for him to win 2 of the last 3
immunities and find himself in the final 3. He won't be much of a
talker at final tribal - he'll need Kent and Penner to be his
advocates. But, it might work. </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Lisa's window might be closing. Many jury members don't like
people who are complete slaves to their alliance. They don't like being
told 'I only voted you out because I gave my word to the alliance.'
They usually wind up voting for the decision makers. I think Lisa is
losing votes. </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<strong>Odds of winning:<br />
<br />
</strong>32% Malcolm (I think you leap-frogged Denise this week and are now the favorite)</div>
<div>
28% Denise (You need to explain to the jury you did more than hide behind Malcolm's idol)<br />
16% Skupin (I had my doubts, but I'm starting to think you might be able to win)<br />
14% Lisa (I think you would struggle in the final tribal)<br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">08% </span>Carter (Win challenges)<br />
02% Abi (Everytime I start to feel sorry for you, you say something atrocious) </div>
</span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-11793165654285896912012-12-16T05:39:00.003-05:002012-12-16T05:39:43.296-05:00Survivor: Philipines, Ep. 10: Schadenfreude<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"></span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It looks like I'm going to sneak this review in just in the nick of time.</span></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last
week, Pete made the only argument he could make (you need me to flush
Malcolm's idol). Nobody bought it, and he went home. Though, I have to
admit, it took a lot of guts for Malcolm not to play his hidden idol.
He was told explicitly that his name was being discussed, and he knew it
would take only one to flip. I think I might have played it.</span></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The
immunity challenge was fun, and I think Carter got a huge advantage
from winning the reward (and calories) the day before. Otherwise, I
think Skupin would have pulled it out.</span></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As
for Abi's tribal council tearfest, there are a couple of lessons to be
learned. First, never get into a debate with a therapist/psychiatrist
about your personal shortcomings when they are ticked with you. You
will never win that exchange. These people referee those type of
arguments all day long. They know every trick of the trade. They will
go for the jugular. They know how. And, they'll do it while seeming to
be the only reasonable person in the room. You can't win.</span></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Denise
really laid into Abi. In some ways I thought it was gratuitous. I'm
no Abi fan, and I don't know what it would be like to be out there with
her for weeks on end. But, did she really need to methodically
dissect her like Hannibal Lecter?</span></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Probst
threw Abi a couple of life preservers ("maybe it is because English
is your second language," "maybe it's cultural"), but Denise swatted
those away like Kent playing slow-pitch softball. Denise is a
therapist, she has heard every smear ever levied by one spouse on
another. She could knock down Probst's defenses after only two days on
the job. Meanwhile, the Director of Economic Development in Brasilia
must have been pulling his hair out after Probst had so casually smeared
the culture and reputation of his homeland. Who would want to invest
in a country full of 200 million Abis? </span><br />
</div>
<div>
I'm not saying Abi is a sympathetic figure. But, once you get
someone crying like that, you can call off the dogs. Denise eventually
did, but only after she had pushed it a little further than was
necessary. Denise wanted to do it - not because it would help her in
the game. It was revenge.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<strong>Other stuff:</strong></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Why did Penner tell Lisa it was too early to make a four-person
alliance? What is he waiting for? He's still a major target, why would
he turn down that offer?</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Skupin is worried about Malcolm at the end. He should be.
Frankly, Skupin has really limited options. I don't think much of his
former tribe will vote for him (except for Roberta, and maybe Lisa).
Artis, Abi, Pete - I think those votes are lost to Skupin. He'd beat
Abi, and maybe, Carter in a jury vote. He's in the wrong final four
alliance.</div>
<div>
</div>
</span><div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Odds of winning:<br />
</b><br />
25% Denise <br />
22% Malcolm <br />
16% Lisa <br />
13% Skupin <br />
</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;">12% Penner <br />
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>09<span style="font-family: arial;">% </span>Carter <br />
03% Abi <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Enjoy tonight's episode!</span></div>
John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-11545812379484281392012-11-16T16:40:00.002-05:002012-11-16T16:45:41.110-05:00Survivor: Philipines, Ep. 7-9<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">It's been a couple of weeks since I posted anything. There is lots to cover.<br /><br /><b>Jeff Kent</b>
<span style="color: black;"><br />
One of the worst positions you can be in on Survivor is to be one of
the leaders of a tribe down 7-4 going into a merge. But, luckily for
Kent, there were two disenchanted people on the majority tribe (Skupin
and Roberta). This is a tremendous break for anyone. You can now lead
the new, dominant tribe and almost ensure yourself a trip to the final
four without having stabbed anyone in the back.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Instead,
Jeff chose to turn down this offer, betray his own alliance, and put
himself at the BOTTOM of an alliance of seven people. Why
would Kent make such a ludicrous decision? Why did Captain Ahab
destroy himself going after Moby Dick? Kent's obsession was making sure Penner didn't win. I really can't figure out why. Moby Dick took Ahab's leg, what is Kent's excuse?</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">I know Kent kept talking about former players not
winning. If I were out there, my goal would be to make sure I win. I
would only talk about former players if it advanced my chances. Kent,
instead, hurt his own chances by going after Penner. Voting out Katie or Dawson is small potatoes for a guy like Kent. Penner is bigger game. Anyway, w</span></span></span>e know what happened. Penner had a hidden idol and won immunity. Kent, who placed himself at the bottom of his new alliance, got blind-sided. I don't feel sorry for him.<br /><br /><b>Penner</b>
<br />
Congrats on three major successes in a row! After the merge, you sniffed out that you needed to play the idol. You won an individual immunity. And, you survived last night by getting Skupin to flip. Your psychological profile of Lisa was interesting.
But, she still hasn't voted with you. In fact, last week no one voted
with you. Skupin might have voted with you last night and saved you, but, I think it's a long road ahead for you to get to the final three. You've played a great game, but, no one wants to sit next to you even though you are a former player. <br /><br /><b>Skupin<br />
</b>I'm not surprised you voted with Penner & Co.
last night. You voted with them when you first merged. Your tribe has
repeatedly treated you like garbage and I don't blame you for showing no
loyalty. Furthermore, you might even have a better chance getting to
the finals with this lot (I don't think Artis/Abi/Pete would have let
you get to the
Final 3). Also, congrats on an excellent immunity victory. I thought that was an impossible task and you showed extraordinary hand-eye coordination. So, if that's the case, why did you keep hitting yourself with the machete in the early episodes? <br /><br /><b>Lisa</b>
<br />I understand why you
wanted to keep the dysfunctional family together and save Dad (Skupin) last week. You're a Mom. That's what Moms do. But, how long are you going to let Abi play the obnoxious teenage brat? The way she talks to you is so degrading it sounds like it came from an episode of Jerry Springer. Roberta already ran away from home, Dad left (again) and the family has broken up for good. You're going to have to scramble for a safe harbor. The good news is that there are initially some bigger targets (Abi and Pete). The bad news is that one has an idol and the other can win immunities.<br /><br /><b>Carter</b>
<br />A few weeks ago you said to
Jonathan: "Katie or Penner." Two weeks ago you said to Kent: "I thought we were voting you next." Heck, I'd align with you just to know if I was in any danger. I can't think of a better source of inadvertent, but crucial information. Watching you play is more fun that a rerun of Gilligan's Island - and you ain't the Professor.<br /><br /><b>Artis</b>
<br />I thought you had a shot at the final three not because
you were in the dominant alliance. We all knew that union was iffy. I
thought you had a shot because you, Abi and Pete are so friggin'
unlikeable. If I were out there I would be scheming to figure out which
combination of the three of you I can sit with at the end.
However, such a back door to the finals was only there for one or two of you and it just closed on you. <br /><br /><b>Abi</b>
<br />
I see that you are learning. Last night, instead of falsely accusing someone of voting for you after tribal, you voiced your suspicions during tribal and before the vote. Brilliant! However, <span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">while you can't win, </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>you have a shot at the final three for the same reasons Artis did. I would love to meet the jury that would ever give you a million dollars. You are clearly one of the most obnoxious people ever to play this game. <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">I can't imagine what you would say to the jury if you made it. Something like: "I beat you because you all suck"?</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Pete</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Why were you so complacent this week? I don't get it. Skupin voted against your tribe at the merge. Though it might not matter now, did you even try to curb Abi's mouth? t feel like you have checked out ever since you found out Malcolm
has an idol. Where is the guy who would play tricks on Roberta
regarding the idol clue? You have the energy for that, but you don't
have the energy to keep an alliance together? Two idols need to be
flushed, otherwise Malcolm and Abi are both in the
final four. Explain to someone out there that they need your vote to
help flush those idols. Maybe you can make a deal.<b> </b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Denise</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">You might be the favorite right now. Did you enjoy the trip to
the village? I hear that after next week's reward challenge, the
winning team will bring supplies to Staten Island. They need it more.<b> </b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Malcolm</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lisa threw you under the bus, but you have rebounded nicely. Don't get caught with the idol in your pocket.<b> </b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Roberta</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It seems like ancient history, but I haven't written a review since your ouster. It
must have been hell living on the same beach with Abi all those days.
Enjoy Ponderosa and watching her self-destruct from the jury box<b><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Odds of winning:</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">23% Denise</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">20% Malcolm</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">15% Lisa</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">14% Skupin</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">12% Penner</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"></span></span></span></span></span></span>08
<span style="font-size: small;">% Carter<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">06%
Pete</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">02% Abi </span></span><br />
<div style="color: black;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">
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John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-61653891385867439232012-10-30T15:52:00.000-04:002012-10-30T15:52:10.608-04:00Saletan, Reread Your Own Blog PostAdmist the tumult of Hurricane Sandy, William Saletan is wondering why Chris Christie would order forced evacuations from coastal regions when the New Jersey Governor has previously expressed hostility to the notion that government should order people to buy health insurance. Saletan <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2012/10/hurricane_sandy_why_does_chris_christie_think_it_s_selfish_to_ignore_evacuation.html" target="_blank">asks</a>: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Hurricanes and health care are different in many ways, of course. Buying
health insurance is more expensive than evacuating for a natural
disaster. But in both cases, the question is whether you should be
allowed to make your own choices when the cost of bailing you out will
fall on others. If the state has no business forcing you buy health
insurance, even when the premiums are subsidized, why should it be
empowered to order you out of your home in a storm, just to save your
skin? Why do Republican governors think they can have it both ways? </blockquote>
However, Christie has already answered Saletan's question, and the quote is at the beginning of this same piece. These are the words of the Governor as quoted by Saletan:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
For those folks on the barriers: You’re putting other people in harm’s
way as well. We already have rescues ongoing on the barrier islands.
This is putting first responders in significant, significant danger, and
it is not fair to their families for you to be putting them in that
danger because you decided that you wanted to be hardheaded.</blockquote>
Not having health insurance doesn't put anyone else in harm's way.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-77280254811731481542012-10-30T08:41:00.000-04:002012-10-30T17:14:39.319-04:00Sooner or later...... someone will link Sandy to AGW. I can't wait for it to happen!<br />
<br />
<b>UPDATE</b>: Here it is!<br />
<br />
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<br />
What did Bill and Gore do about climate change while they were in the White House for eight years?John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-7048259040197218212012-10-30T08:34:00.001-04:002012-10-30T08:34:59.842-04:00NYT: If You Survive Sandy, Vote Obama!<br />
If you're keeping track - a politician mustn't make statements or ask questions about a terrorist attack after it has happened, but the Times can print <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/opinion/a-big-storm-requires-big-government.html" target="_blank">this</a> anti-Romney screed last night <i><b>during</b></i> the hurricane. Disgusting.<br />
<br />John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-16733695475986752382012-10-29T07:36:00.002-04:002012-10-29T07:36:40.855-04:00CreepyThe person(s) who made this video live in a different universe than I do:<br />
<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/fwlW4lx6TTo?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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<br />John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-28284103516106046372012-10-27T01:11:00.003-04:002012-10-27T01:16:42.641-04:00Survivor: Philippines, Ep. 6 - Stalemate <span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">This episode was not the producers' finest hour.<br />
<br />
First, they designed an unwinnable reward challenge. What will the challenge be next week? Tic-Tac-Toe?<br />
<br />
Second, they earnestly tried to paint a picture where Katie might not be going home in order to create drama that simply did not exist. That vote was a slam dunk.<br />
<br />
Early in the program, they showed Katie arguing to Denise to vote off Penner. Denise wasn't buying any of it. I know they showed Kent and Carter waffling and debating on ousting Penner. No sale for this viewer. I think Kent debates about voting out Penner every day... [Strike that - not strong enough] I think Kent debates voting out Penner <i><b>every hour of every day</b></i>. He can't wait to blindside that guy. But, at this point, the argument to get rid of Penner does not exist. If there's no merge, you still need Penner in the challenges.
If there is a merge, you need him as the first target for the other
tribe, and you still need his immunity idol if you want to pull
something. Voting Penner out now would have been a complete waste. Sure, Kent debated it (with himself - Carter just watched), but Kent wasn't going to do it (this time).<br />
<br />
As for the deal made at the challenge - all you saw was a lot of unhappy people. How can you make a trade where most on both sides hated the swap?
My Econ 101 professor might answer that this is the inefficiencies of a
barter system and why currencies developed. But, I think the answer is
this: there are a lot of people who dislike Penner and Skupin, and
this was an excuse to go off on them.<br />
<br />
That challenge was a nightmare. The deal made sense. Stop your whining. It couldn't have been bad for <i><b>both</b></i> tribes? Frankly, I don't think it was bad for either one since they are so close to a merge. Ending the challenge was the prize and the real winners were the ones on the sidelines who didn't have to exert any energy in the trench warfare.<br />
<br />
One note of clarification: of couse it's possible to make a deal that both sides absolutely hate (<i>see</i> The Compromise of 1850, which destroyed the Whig Party and led to the Civil War). But, this was a friggin' swap of food. Get over it. Abi used that deal as an excuse to bitch. <br />
<br />
<u><b>Other stuff:<br />
</b></u><br />
- Why can Malcolm almost single-handedly win challenges
on his new tribe, but not for his old? Is it because Russell's not
around?<br />
<br />
- Having said that, Lisa really did contribute to the win with her shot placement. She also (again) neutralized Denise in the reward challenge (it helps that she outweighs her by 40 lbs.). Lisa is actually in a decent position right now.<br />
<br />
- Before tribal council, Carter said to Penner: "Katie or Penner?" Sharp.<br />
<br />
In the last review I said I would handicap the field soon. It looks like a merge is coming, so before the next episode would be a good time. I'm not sure if the Halloween Hurricane, Sandy, is going to be <i>The Tempest</i> or <i>Much Ado About Nothing</i>, but references to the Bard aside, I expect the storm to clear out some of my schedule early this week, allowing me to handicap the field before Wednesday.</span>John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-63026834304522380732012-10-27T01:10:00.001-04:002012-10-27T01:16:33.522-04:00Survivor: Philippines, Ep. 5 - Malcolm in the Middle <span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">
</span></span></span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This was the best episode of the season thus far. It had:</span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">
</span></span></span><br />
<div>
</div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- an immunity idol discovered</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- a tribe disbanded</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- two challenges</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- a player leave due to illness, and</span></div>
<div>
- a compelling decision in the final tribal.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
First things first: it is rare to see a player turn his fortunes
around as quickly as Malcolm has. He has an idol, he's on a tribe that
can actually win challenges, and most importantly - the tribe is split,
and two factions need him as a swing vote. Pete was upfront to Malcolm
that his alliance has the
idol, but he also acknowledged that he was initially aligned with Skupin
and RC, and is blowing them off (that should be a red flag for
Malcolm). That leaves RC - who doesn't really have any numbers. I
don't know what Malcolm should do except keep winning challenges. If
they do have to vote someone out, I would keep my promises to a minimum
(if he can get away with it). </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Denise's fortunes also improved. I like the way the producers handled the disbandonment of that tribe. If you merge a six-person tribe with a three-person tribe, the three have big problems. Maybe one can survive it. But, the strongest two will be attacked right away. However, a six-person tribe can absorb only one person
with a lot less friction. It gives that single person a decent shot.
One person coming in is less likely to be seen as a threat and more
likely to be seen as an opportunity. In any case, it's good to see
Denise and Malcolm put out of the misery of their initial tribe. They
are both good players.</div>
<div>
</div>
</span></span><div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">I was dead wrong
about the strength of loyalty Katie had for Dana. But, it turns out
Dana didn't have the same loyalty coming back. I know, I know, Dana
was in severe pain. My advice: drink as much water as you can
stomach, lay in the shelter, and it will eventually go away. People
fight through those attacks. Instead, Dana left her allies up Dawson's Creek. Am I being too tough on Dana? Maybe. But last week she was blustering that the male alliance shouldn't "underestimate her because she's a female." Maybe her alliance shouldn't overestimate her because she's Dana?
I realize that about 1 out of 10 or 1 out of 15 Survivors' bodies shut
down. She still could have fought a little harder (I saw Tom Westman
talk Janu into staying in Palau when she was about to shut down). Dana's quit wasn't as bad as Osten's checkout from Panama, but it wasn't admirable. </span></span> </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Once Dana was gone, Katie talked about roping in Denise, but did we even see it? I know there are time constraints, but where was the attempt? Kent did it without much fuss. Did
Dawson even consider approaching Denise as an option? I realize life
is busy on the island for Dawson. She has to antagonize Kent and dream
about Probst's next visit to camp, but could she have at least found a
moment to ask Denise if she wants to vote with her? She didn't even
find time to use her best weapon - her info about Kent's former career.
But, she did get a 30-second cringe-inducing hug from Probst, so I guess it was all worth while.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
You get the feeling Dawson wasn't there to win. She was there to
have fun and meet Probst. So, I'm guessing they made the right decision
to dump her instead of Katie. At least Katie is trying (though she's close to checking out - I know this because the near-comatose Carter observed it, so it must be true). At least Katie's
upset when she doesn't do well. Dawson only seems to get upset when
Probst comes to see Dana, not her ("I'd normally jump on him, but it
wasn't good timing").</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<u><b>Other stuff:</b></u><br />
<br />
- Another week of Skupin not bleeding! He's actually almost under the radar (though next week's preview suggests that's about to blow up). </div>
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><br />
- In the immunity challenge on the axe portion - Penner pinch hit for Kent. If only he knew!<br />
<br />
- So, Kent needs to be bailed out of the chopping portion of the immunity challenge, but according to him, the loss was Katie and Dawson's fault? Just asking....<br />
<br />
- Was it me, or did Probst mention one time too many that Abi has sat out a lot, and Katie struggled in the early portion of the immunity challenge? <span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Probst, we heard you the third time! </span></span><br />
<br />
- The reward this week included
cookies, and the winner of that challenge won immunity! Angie was right
- that's all a tribe needs!<br />
<br />
- Abi to Dawson during the reward challenge: "fight like a man, not a b*tch!" It's just that type of observation that can help any player after the merge (though, Abi might have had a point).<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-size: small;">- I thought Penner said all the right things during Dana's illness. He was helpful, consoling and understanding.
But, did you get the feeling he was happy she left because he would now
have the numbers within the tribe? I'm sure he wouldn't have been as
satisfied if he knew he would lose the next immunity, but I got the feeling, in that moment, he wasn't upset to see Dana go.<br /><br />Great episode. Next week, I'll start breaking down people's chances of winning. </span>
John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-3811448283689185502012-10-20T21:02:00.001-04:002012-10-27T01:16:22.459-04:00Survivor: Philippines Ep.4 - Paradise Lost<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Genesis, 2:7 - 3:23: </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>"Then
the LORD God formed man of dust from the ground, and breathed into his
nostrils the breath of life; and Russell became a living being. ... Then
the LORD God took the Russell and put him into the garden of Survivor
to cultivate it and keep the tribe strong for the challenges.<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="versiontext">
But the Russell believed he to be perfect, not merely created by the
LORD God, but like the LORD God, and thus would win all the challenges
like the LORD God. But, when Russell failed he cried to the LORD God
why had he failed, and the Probst said to the Russell, "because you are
just a man." But, Russell wouldn't believe what he thought was the
deceiver and could no longer see the Truth in all things. And, the
woman the LORD God had given to be with Russell to help cultivate the
garden seeing Russell was just a man who could no longer see Truth was
able to deceive him. So the LORD God banished him from the garden
of Survivor to return to the grounds from which he had been taken." </span></span></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
I'm not sure why this episode reminded me of the Old Testament and
the story of Adam's banishment from Eden. I think it's because in
Genesis, God created man, and man immediately messes up. There's a
lesson there - man is flawed, imperfect. But, Russell never got that
memo. After the challenge, he suggested he should be flawless because
God is perfect. I'd love to know where he got that idea from.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
At tribal council Russell walked back a lot of what he had said,
but I think what came out at the challenge is what's really in his heart
- unscripted. The Ancient Greeks called this Hubris and their
literature and myths made numerous warnings against it.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
The worst rout in Survivor history occurred in Palau when Ulong
lost all seven immunity challenges, whittling their original eight down
to one. Pathetic. But, in many ways, this season's performance is even
worse. At least Ulong won a couple of rewards - Russell's tribe hasn't
won anything. Moreover, this tribe is competing against two others -
giving them two chances to win. The tribe is, in actuality, 0 for 8.
Atrocious.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
The Greeks warned that Hubris's enemy was Nemesis, who would
destroys all those whose ego exceeds that of a man's (Greek sculptors
used to leave minor flaws in their works so as not to unleash Nemesis'
wrath). It's interesting to see such a self-centered egotist perform so
poorly, leading his tribe to an historic (by Survivor standards)
defeat. That doesn't mean Russell wasn't likeable. He was. It's just
that his ego wound up being completely out of control. </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u>Bottom Line</u></b>: I'm not arguing against
self-improvement or trying to better oneself. But, both the Ancient
Hebrews and Greeks warned us: Don't go thinking your perfect. No one
is. Thinking you are will ruin you.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u>Other Stuff:</u></b></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Malcolm gave a good effort, but Kent's performance outclassed
him in the challenge. Being a professional baseball player helped
tremendously. He could obviously handle pressure (Malcolm panicked a
little at the end); and, being a hitter, he showed tremendous hand eye
coordination. Well done (and a very exciting finish - I loved the
slo-mo when Kent's last toss missed the jar only to crack it on the
return).</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- I have both Pete and Roberta in the pool (it's never fun to see
your kids fighting), and I think this squabble has the potential to be
bad for both of them. Roberta is losing control of her place in the
tribe. She seems anxious, even panicky. As for Pete, if he pulls too
many stunts like this, it could really blow up in his face. It wouldn't
take much for Abi and Roberta to have a conversation and figure out
Pete planted the clue that caused the chaos. However, to Pete's credit,
Abi has shown absolutely no willingness to have such a conversation, so
maybe Pete understands Abi better than I thought possible (and, thus,
is really in control). If that's the case, Pete has a much better read
of things than Roberta ever did (who initially formed a primary alliance
with the bombastic Brazilian, which is coming back to haunt her).
Pete's correct not to trust Roberta, and he seems to have isolated
her, so maybe I shouldn't worry too much about what he's doing. I just
don't like him setting off an unpredictable personality like Abi's. As
for Roberta, it looks like her best chance is to get on a re-mixed
tribe.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Penner's tribe has split based on gender, but did anyone else
get the feeling Miss Delaware would rather be with the guys? Dana sat
there and talked about the girls sticking together, but I didn't hear
much enthusiasm from the other two. Dana could be the first to go if
Malcolm/Denise actually manage to win something.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- I don't recall seeing Skupin bleed once this episode! Congrats to Mike!</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
- Right now, Abi has an idol. If she gets blindsided with it
in her pocket, it could be the biggest fireworks explosion since the
turn of the Millennium. Abi doesn't do anything quiet.<br />
</div>
<div>
Later.</div>
John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4378846584161260850.post-20952152947112265542012-10-20T21:00:00.001-04:002012-10-27T01:14:54.260-04:00Five Trillion Later<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">During the next economic crisis or deep recession, the
President will call a meeting of his economic advisors and no one is going to
say “let’s do what Obama did.” </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">We
borrowed and spent $5 trillion dollars and have nothing to sho<span style="font-size: small;">w</span> for it except
the vague claim that we somehow prevented a second Great Depression. The “stimulus” didn’t stimulate the economy,
so we’re told things would have been worse without it. We didn’t build any new infrastructure (where
are the new roads, bridges and dams?). What
Obama did isn’t going to be a blueprint for anyone going forward. Five trillion dollars down the toilet. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
John Ennishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16379163112483876799noreply@blogger.com0