Survivor - Philippines, Ep. 1: The Red Knight Retires

When researching the cast for a new Survivor season, I usually walk away thinking that about a third of the players can't win.  This time, I thought half couldn't win.  However, Zane was not on the list - which goes to show what I know.

Zane's performance was arguably the worst opening episode showing in the history of the series (rivaling, if not exceeding, Johnny Fairplay's "quit" in Fans vs. Favorites).  Fairplay sort of had an excuse (his reputation from an earlier season doomed him from the start), what was Zane's "reasoning"?  It sounded like if things weren't going to go right for him early, he had no interest in toughing it out.  I'm surprised the screening process didn't catch this about him.  He had no business being in the cast, but he did earn himself a 36-day vacation until he and the rest of the troupe flies home.

I'm not sure any of the returning players can win.  Survivor is often a pendulum - one season, women might dominate, and the next cast reacts, and men do better.  One season, someone flies under the radar to victory, and then it becomes harder to do that for a season or two.  Recently, returning players have done well - shockingly well in some cases (Boston Rob & Coach).  I get the feeling the antibodies have kicked in, and this cast won't let the returning players get into a powerful position. 

I really enjoyed Michael Skupin in Australia.  He was very entertaining (Australia was a very good season and might have had the best cast ever).  Anyhow, some of Skupin's flaws, which you saw in Australia, really presented themselves in this episode.  I always thought his passing out in the fire was a freak accident - now I'm not so sure.  His multiple self-inflicted injuries are beyond parody.  That foot cut was deep, and the forehead gash looked to be about six inches.  The man is a menace.

Skupin also has a VERY different perspective on things.  I don't see how he could think Lisa announcing her childhood celebrity would help her, but in Skupin's universe it would.  In his pre-show interview on the CBS website, he stated that he won't lay low because only about two people ever flew under the radar and won.  That is simply not true - Skupin wants it to be true.  Skupin can't fly under the radar, won't fly under the radar.  He'll go 100 MPH until he hits a brick wall.

Either you can do a puzzle or you can't.  When someone tells you they can't do puzzles - believe them.  Russell's folly during the allocation of personnel for the challenge was terrible (and the girls had every right to be annoyed).  Though I don't think Skupin can win, I picked two people from his tribe, because I think Skupin's leadership in the challenges could help them early.  I am reasonably confident of that assessment.  Russell's tribe has some potentially good players (Malcolm & Roxy), but they still have to figure out how to handle Russell.  If they don't, they could be in a bad place.

As for Penner, his tribe is already on to him, and want nothing to do with him.  Good luck to him.

As for the celebrities, Kent thinks he tore up his knee, and in the preview Lisa was already crying for Mrs. Garrett.  I've seen some players have early meltdowns and recover (Holly threw a tribesmate's $600 crocodile shoes into the ocean but managed to make it deep into the jury).  I also think Kent might have misdiagnosed.  I won't write them off yet, but they have problems.

I've written enough.  I'll save my thoughts about the newbies for future re-caps (though I was surprised by Angie).  She might be an unexpectedly strong player (my Dad compared her to Reese Witherspoon in Legally Blonde, and there might be something to it).

Overall, it was a good opening episode - good dynamics, a fun challenge and a real question going into tribal council (they made the right decision).  The season has potential.

Getting Ready for 2016

Hillary Clinton, yesterday: "There are rich people everywhere and yet they do not contribute to the growth of their own countries. They don’t invest in public schools, in public hospitals, in other kinds of development internally...” 

If rich people aren't building schools and hospitals, who is?  Poor people? 

When I read a quote like Ms. Clinton's, I begin to realize that the gulf between how I view the world, and the way people like HRC views the world, is probably unbridgeable.

Not Exactly a Blueprint for Success

At some point in the future, we will have another recession.  The President will call a meeting of his advisors.  They will gather in a White House conference room to discuss what should be done.  Will any of the advisors say “let’s do what Obama did”?

The answer is clearly no.  They might say ‘let’s do what Reagan did’ or ‘let’s do what FDR did.’  But, no one is ever going to say ‘let’s do what Obama did.’

Remember this as you listen to Obama’s sycophants defend his economic policies over the next eleven weeks.  They are trying to drag his campaign across the finish line.  Once the election is over, no one will ever cite his policies as a blueprint for how to handle an economic crisis.

Hubris Unbound

Earlier this week, President Obama met with about 20 conservative Jewish community leaders.  According to Haaretz, "Obama also stressed he probably knows about Judaism more than any other president, because he read about it..."

While this claim is clearly not true (we have had presidents who studied Hebrew), let's assume it were.  If you were the foremost expert on a subject, would you brag about it in such a manner?  The lack of humility is cringe-inducing.

But, Obama's religious scholarship is not limited to the Old Testament, it includes Catholic just-war theorists.  As the New York Times reported over the weekend, when it comes to the use of predator drones and how targets are determined, "nominations go to the White House, where by his own insistence and guided by Mr. Brennan, Mr. Obama must approve any name," because as a "student of writings on war by Augustine and Thomas Aquinas, he believes that he should take moral responsibility for such actions. And he knows that bad strikes can tarnish America’s image and derail diplomacy."

LBJ picked bombing targets in Vietnam to protect America's image (how did that work?), while FDR let Ike choose where the Normandy invasion would be.  Some tactical decisions should be left to military experts, but I'm guessing there is no one on the Joint Chiefs of Staff with the scholarship of Mr. Obama's to be trusted with such a task.  By the way, what was Augustine's views regarding killing rather than capturing and questioning terrorists?  What does Aquinas say about the criteria for choosing military targets?  

The Time quotes former C.I.A. director, Michael Hayden, as saying: “This program rests on the personal legitimacy of the president, and that’s not sustainable...” 

I'm not sure if the program is unsustainable, but it is bizarre.  For Obama, the New York Times and the rest of the American left, detaining terrorists in Guantanamo is a moral abomination, but Obama acting as judge, jury and executioner is fine because of his party affiliation (and he read Aquinas).  In short, because Obama believes one should take moral responsibility for such actions, the left finds Obama's actions moral.  We'll see if they hold this opinion when Romney is ordering drone strikes.

Survivor: One World, Final

There are times in Survivor where you have to mislead.  It's impossible to win the game otherwise.  Sometimes, you might have to flat-out lie.  Some winners have lied a lot. 

 

Some players have betrayed alliances - they almost never win. Ocassionally, a player makes an alliance with everyone, and the amount of betrayal bites him in the end.

 

Where's the line?  You can't win without misleading a little, but, how much lying is too much?

 

The brilliance of the format is that it's left for the jury to decide.  As Jeff says, you will be held accountable in the end. 

 

I mention all this becuase Kim might be the most deceitful player ever to win the game.  She's up there with Russell.  Russell never won, but Kim dominated her jury.  Why?  Is it the package?  Is it that she was, nevertheless, likeable?

 

Comparing her to Russell might be unfair.  The best analogy might be Boston Rob in All-Stars.  Rob made an alliance with everyone, stayed true to only a few, dominated physically and strategically, but lost in the end to a highly disgruntled jury.  Why didn't Kim share a similar fate?  She had an ALLIANCE with Kat, Mike, Jay and Troy.  I'd have a difficult time voting for someone who broke an alliance with me.  Sabrina and Chelsea were in that alliance, but both of them were less guilty than Kim (Mike nailed this point at the final tribal council).

 

In one of the last tribals, Chelsea made a plea to Kim's loyalty, but it included a threat.  She warned that a betrayal of that magnitude would doom her with the jury. Chelsea implied that that was where the line was (which is convenient for Chelsea).

 

Kim played a great game, but she might have crossed my line earlier than that.  The episode beforehand she admitted to the camera that she has lied so much, she can't remember the truth.  That's when she lost me. 

 

I know Kim's extremely likeable.  I know it's just a game.  But, I'm not sure I would have voted for her.

 

At the final tribal, Christina was asked about the abuse she received at the hands of Colton and Alicia.  She shrugged it off - 'it's just a game, I love all these guys.'  I don't know if I would be that casual about it.  Alicia breaks down over comparing Christina to her students because of what it meant about the students (not Christina).  Colton is on trial for saying to Bill 'get a real job', but NOT for telling Christina to 'jump in the fire.'  Kim's lying, the abuse of Christina - that's all fine.  But, if you mention thw Wizard of Oz when discussing Leif, you're in hot water.  I find it weird what people choose to get indignant about.  We live in strange times.

Turning Lemonade Into Lemons

It seems to me that the President is turning his biggest campaign asset (the killing of Osama Bin Laden) into a liability.  A subtle reminder to the voters once in a while is fine, but they will tolerate only a certain amount of self-congratulations.  The public knows most presidents would have given the order.  Twisting Romney's words and claiming he wouldn't have is a hard sell.

The word is that the military doesn't like what the President is doing, and some retired Seals might start publicly complaining if Obama doesn't stop it. Who is going to win that argument with the voters? I'd put my money on the Seals. But, don't worry Democrats, when the Seals start complaining, you can be there to tell them to shut up, the GOP did the same thing after 9/11. That should work.   

Survivor: One World, Ep. 11 - Mission: Impossible?

Some neuroscientists have begun to postulate that people don't use reason when making a decision.  Instead, they use reason & logic after the fact to justify a decision that has already been made. I don't know how true this is, but you saw hints of this phenomenon from Kat.

 

Kat was hurt that Kim didn't take her on the reward.  Kat wants to hurt Kim in return.  She faces two immediate logical obstacles in justifying/rationalizing her anger:

 

1.  Chelsea might have been more deserving to go on the reward than Kat was.

2.  Most of the tribe didn't go on the reward.  Kat wasn't singled out.  Sabrina is a core alliance member, and she didn't get picked either.

 

Kat used sophistry to dismiss point 1 ("we're all hungry").  Kim didn't say Kat wasn't hungry, she said Chelsea had eaten less than Kat.  Kat is willfully ignoring that there might be a distinction between Chelsea and herself and creating a false equivalency.  Yes, they are both hungry, but that's not the issue - the issue is who is more deserving to go based on past rewards.

 

As for point 2, Kat can't openly complain too much about being denied a reward that was also denied others.  This is where her wheels really started turning -  I'm not really upset about the reward ... I don't want to be seen as a weak player...  I didn't come out here to be a follower.... A move against Kim would show I'm a bold player ...

 

Kat wants to hurt Kim.  It's all because of her petty anger and jealousy of being denied the reward.  She can't say it.  She can't even think it.  So, she's rationalizing another reason why she might vote against Kim - and Troy is giving her all the justifications she needs to do so. Kim has to get rid of Kat next - Kat is too dangerous in her state.

 

The reason this is dangerous for all the girls, not just Kim, is that Troy now thinks Kat is his project.  If Kat moves against Kim and is successful - Troy will think it was his doing.  If Kat makes the finals - Troy will DEFINITELY vote for Kat (after all, in Troy's mind, she'll be there because she listened to Troy's wisdom).  This argument might also gain traction with the rest of the men on the jury (i.e., Kim was the mastermind who took the men out, but Kat saw the light and took out Kim - let's vote for Kat). 

So, the rest of the girls have to take both Kim and Kat out before the final three - either one is shaping up to be the favorite to win a jury vote.  However, people are really running out of time to make a move against Kim seeing as she still has the idol.

 

Other thoughts:

 

- That reward challenge is the ultimate pickle.  They've run it at least 10 times, and I think it's usually not worth winning.  So, why did Kim win it and then complain about it for the rest of the day?  Has she ever watched the show?  Does she know you are allowed to throw a challenge if you want?

 

-  Christina was voted least deserving to be there when Tarzan is still around?!?!?!  OUCH!!!!

 

-  Sabrina was voted as doing the least around camp?  I didn't see that one coming.

 

-  Troy said the pig was 170 lbs. and they never were going to catch it.  He was wrong on both counts.  The swine was half that weight and Michael Skupin killed a pig of similar size on Survivor: Australia.  Troy made the comment that the girls were crazy to think we could catch it AFTER Troy had made a considerable effort, and failed to do so.  How convenient for Troy to fail at a task, and then declare it impossible.  The impossible mission for Troy was saving himself after he lost immunity.  Catching a pig has been done:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sj8iPlmeNQ

P.S. Yes, that is Elisabeth Hasselbeck from The View showing off her abs in the clip.