I don't have too much to say about the last two episodes. Yes, they tried to create some drama about
whether Lisa would break her word and blindside Malcolm. I don't know
if she would have, but it was made moot by his two immunity wins. The
bottom line is this: the final four alliance held. It formed at seven, and methodically voted off Penner, Carter and Abi.
As for tonight, they all seem to think it will be three at the final tribal. If so, how are they going to fill a two hour show? Previous seasons that have had a final three, also had five survivors entering into the final episode. It sounds like they are going to fill the hole with a reward challenge. If so, the first hour tonight could really drag. I'm guessing this is happening because of Dana's untimely exit. They still had tribal council that episode (after many evacuations
they don't). Anyway, they probably didn't stretch things out, they
instead decided to just have four at the end and an extra reward
challenge.
If all this is true, there is only one immunity left. If
Malcolm wins that, he probably wins the game. If he loses that, he's
probably gone, and then the voting becomes more intriguing. In that
scenario, Lisa might become the favorite. Bear in mind, though, Penner has probably told everybody at Ponderosa about her child
star status, and that could effect voting. Also, as I said a few weeks
ago, I think Lisa might struggle answering the jury's questions.
Denise has to explain that she did more than hide behind Malcolm's idol. She is articulate, so she has a shot to do that.
As for Skupin - I just don't think enough jurors
respect him. When Pete was trying to save himself, he said maybe
Skupin will go for his plan because he doesn't think things through.
Pete said it matter-of-factly and rather cooly. I got the feeling he
wasn't the only one who thought that. Roberta will probably vote
for Skupin, and Lisa might, if she were on the jury. But, I don't see
where he'll get other votes from. Abi? Penner? Artis? Kent? I don't see it. When he made that pre-merge deal with Penner, his tribe went off on him (and looked like they had fun doing it). Then, again, Skupin might have ultimately been the most likeable person out there. And, if he's sitting next to Denise and Lisa, he might get votes.
All in all, it's a respectable final
four. Any one of them would be a legitimate winner. Malcolm and Lisa
have probably played the best games so far. But, for some reason, I find myself rooting for Lisa and Skupin over Malcolm and Denise. When I look at Malcolm, I see his early passivity when his tribe crashed and burned. There is something charming about Skupin's cheerful innocence. I look at Denise, and I
see someone doing a job. I look at Skupin and see someone on an
adventure. As for Lisa, I'm happy for her that she did so well.
Odds of Winning:
45% Malcolm
25% Lisa
20% Denise
10% Skupin
One last question: who will be the most excited person at tonight's reunion show? The winner or Dawson (tonight she gets to see Probst again)?
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