Survivor: Philipines, Ep. 11

Well, I guess Kent is finally happy?

 

Penner really blew it.  Skupin and Lisa offerred him an alliance to the end and Penner inexplicably turned it down.  It was too soon, he said?  This is a three-time veteran making a rookie mistake.  Hasn't he been watching Lisa's game?  Once the Church Lady gives her word, there is no going back: she's voting the way Malcolm and Denise tell her to vote - er, she's voting with her alliance.  Period.

 

If Lisa liked Penner so much, couldn't she have done more than tell him to "work his magic."  Couldn't she have tried to persuade her alliance to vote Carter instead?  Just asking because it seems to me Lisa has a better shot to win without Penner in the game.  She said this is not about the money.  Whenever someone says that, it usually is about the money.  I'm not criticizing her, mind you.  But, she ain't Seinfeld.  I'm sure the Facts of Life money dried up a long time ago.  But, even if she doesn't need the check, winning would still be fun.  She's got to be thinking about that just a little - no?  Leaving the decision of who to vote next to her alliance absolves her of the guilt of voting Penner while advancing her in the game.  That is what we call a win-win.   

 

I thought Skupin might flip, but it would be almost impossible for him to win if he had (he would have betrayed most of the jury).  By staying loyal he still has a decent path to a victory.  He needs to win the immunity when they get to 4 and vote Malcolm out (Malcolm can't play the idol once you get to 4).  It would be him, Denise and Lisa in the final 3.  Skupin might be able to win that vote.      

 

Other Stuff:

 

- Congrats to Abi on showing some backbone.  She could have pigged out at the reward and gone home.  At least she fought.  She went in there determined to get the immunity advantage, and she won.  Of course, she was unable to build any goodwill after her agonizing confrontation with Penner about what went on at the previous tribal council.  I wonder why Abi chose to confront Penner instead of Denise, when it was Denise who had more harsh things to say the night before?  Is it because Abi realized Denise would destroy her a second time, whereas Penner might actually show some compassion? 

 

- Carter is showing some athletic prowess.  He has been very competitive in the challenges.  So, has Skupin.  Malcolm, not so much so.  I wonder if Malcolm is holding back a little because the idol is protecting him and he doesn't want to be seen as a physical threat? 

 

-  Carter can win.  It's feasible for him to win 2 of the last 3 immunities and find himself in the final 3.  He won't be much of a talker at final tribal - he'll need Kent and Penner to be his advocates.  But, it might work. 

 

- Lisa's window might be closing.  Many jury members don't like people who are complete slaves to their alliance.  They don't like being told 'I only voted you out because I gave my word to the alliance.'  They usually wind up voting for the decision makers.  I think Lisa is losing votes.  

 

Odds of winning:

32% Malcolm    (I think you leap-frogged Denise this week and are now the favorite)

28% Denise    (You need to explain to the jury you did more than hide behind Malcolm's idol)
16% Skupin    (I had my doubts, but I'm starting to think you might be able to win)
14% Lisa    (I think you would struggle in the final tribal)
08% Carter    (Win challenges)
02% Abi    (Everytime I start to feel sorry for you, you say something atrocious)