Better Late Than Never?

Yesterday, the United Nations approved a no-fly zone for Libya:

The United Nations Security Council voted Thursday to authorize military action, including airstrikes against Libyan tanks and heavy artillery and a no-fly zone, a risky foreign intervention aimed at averting a bloody rout of rebels by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.

The risk here is that the military intervention (which will probably be led by the U.S.) will prevent the final destruction of the rebels, but will leave Qaddafi in charge of most of Libya. The result will be a never-ending military obligation to patrol Libyan air space to prevent Qaddafi from moving in on rebel pockets.

Critics of American intervention in the Libyan Civil War have warned that it could turn into another Iraq. The danger right now is not a repeat of the 2003 war against Iraq, but the 1991 one. After that conflict, the United States implemented no-fly zones over the north and and south to prevent Saddam from continuing his slaughter of the Kurds and Marsh Arabs. The U.S. enforced these no-fly zones for well over a decade. They protected the Kurds, but never threatened Saddam's reign. We might be walking into a similarly endless stalemate in Libya. If we entered early, it might have helped bring about a decisive defeat of Qadaffi. By entering late, we might prevent a decisive defeat of the rebels, but also entangle us in an endless mission of protection for their last remaining enclaves.

I still support the no-fly zone, but that would be a far from ideal outcome.