Survivor: Redemption Island, Ep. 1 - Amateur Hour

"I know how Boston Rob thinks. And, right now, he's thinking: 'oh, crap. I'm stuck with a bunch of weenies.'" - Russell Hantz

Wrong.

Rob has the early control of his tribe after correctly identifying and neutralizing the main competition (Kristina & Francesca). It was a masterful performance - based on wisdom, insight, charisma and star power. It's not his masterpiece - which is still when the Robfather manipulated Lex and Kathy into keeping Amber - because the level of competition here is not the same as in All-Stars (as Rob said in the voting booth, he was facing amateurs).

Nevertheless, I have some sympathy for the older folks on Rob's team. I've never seen a tribe fracture so cleanly and quickly. Every person under 30 on that beach is a full-blown Rob acolyte (they celebrated like Londoners on V-E Day when Rob pulled the yellow buff out of the sack). What were the older three to do? I don't see how they were going to ingratiate themselves with that group, and that realization fueled their desperation. Francesca joked that she was in an alliance with someone she really didn't like - but, she really didn't have a choice.

I congratulate Kristina on finding the hidden immunity without any aids. However, her plan to use the idol to take out Boston Rob was crazy. Even if it worked, they would all be completely screwed. They had just gotten blown out in a challenge. Without Boston Rob, they might expect to win 1 out of the next 5. Furthermore, their three person alliance would still be outnumbered by the five youngsters remaining, and they wouldn't have the idol anymore. Francesca (by far the brightest of the three) correctly nixed this idea. But, they didn't come up with an alternative. Francesca and Kristina didn't appear to have any conversations trying to convince somebody to vote out Natalie. They didn't even have a conversation trying to direct the majority's attention to Phillip rather than themselves. Their plan appeared to be nothing more than to show up to tribal council and wait to see which one of the three Boston Rob would decide to vote out first. Compounding their problems, they neglected to tell Phillip this was the new "strategy."

Phillip came across terribly in this episode, and as a consequence, I would expect his software company to go bankrupt by the summer (would you do business with that guy?). However, despite Francesca's complaints, he had a couple of good points. First, I don't care where Andrea grew up - farm girl or not, she was close to hacking her foot off. Secondly, Phillip might have been overly aggressive in saying it, but he had pinpointed the key issue - where were the extra votes going to come from? Kristina finally showed him the immunity idol to appease him - but they still didn't have the votes. And, the two women abandoned their plan because of it - without telling Philip. Phillip had specifically said he didn't want to vote for Rob without the numbers, and ultimately that's what they left him to do. No wonder he was steamed at tribal. He came across poorly, but I understand his anger. If Francesca spent less time mocking Phillip, and more time trying to break up the cult of personality surrounding Rob, maybe she wouldn't be stuck on Redemption Island.

We don't know much about the cultists (except that Ashley felt she had let Rob down in the challenge - so she is in deep). If they lose again, all they need to do is split their votes between Kristina and Phillip - flush the idol - and vote them out over the next two tribals. Can Kristina use the allure of the idol to save herself for a couple of episodes, a la Marty last season? Maybe. We'll see. I think she made the right decision not to give the idol to Rob and not to play it. Both also took a lot of guts. She's tough, creative and aggressive, but she's in one heck of a hole.   

I don't expect to see Francesca back in the game. It sounds like the remaining person on Redemption Island won't come back until they get down to 4 or 6 players. So, the earlier you're voted out, the more individual showdowns you'll have to win to stay. I'm guessing they'll be a mixture of physical and mental - but, how many people can win 10 or 12 of those in a row? Ouch! Odds are that the person to re-enter the game will be voted out much later than now.

Except for 20 extra pounds on his frame, Russell 3.0 looks a lot like 2.0 & 1.0. I doubt it will have the same success. Aside from that, we don't know much about that tribe except that they dominated the challenge and are very suspicious of their celebrity tribemate. They don't need him, and know enough to get rid of him ASAP.

Overall, this was an excellent opening episode. My concerns are:

1. Russell's tribe might dominate the challenges.
2. The next two tribal challenges for Rob's group might lack drama.

Last thoughts:

1. Dave and Mike had worked out Russell's alliance with Steph already. Also, they were working together (a thirtysomething version of the JT/Steven alliance in Tocantins?). Sarita had worked it out too. Right now, I think those are the three to watch on Russell's tribe.
2. I jokingly called them cultists - but anyone in the alliance with Boston Rob has improved their chances (in my mind). They are now safe for the next two votes and can get rid of Boston Rob whenever they want after that. Plus, Rob will help them in the challenges and around camp NOW. Finally, they could go into the merge as a strong five-person alliance.
3. I couldn't believe how many supplies and tools both tribes started with - but, then I realized that the weekly showdown on Redemption Island will take some time - so they'll probably cut the tribal rewards (which they had been phasing out anyhow).
4. The "what if" examples they used between segments were awful. Do people really wonder about the missed opportunities for Shambo, Erik, Jane or Brenda? The only one who was a remotely good enough player to deserve to win was, maybe, Brenda. The other three were completely pawned by superior players.